УДОСКОНАЛЕННЯ МАТЕМАТИЧНИХ МЕТОДІВ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ АВАРІЙ НА ВУГІЛЬНИХ ШАХТАХ
IMPROVEMENT OF MATHEMATICAL METHODS OF ACCIDENTS IN COAL MINES PREDICTION

Summary/Abstract: Introduction. There are different studies devoted to accidents in coal mines forecasting. They are concerning the prediction of human injuries, fires, obstructions etc. But in terms of restructuring and reformation of Ukraine’s coal industry, the issue of the level of accidents reducing is still actual, so development of new approaches for their prevention remains relevant. Purpose. Analyzing existing mathematical models and approaches to forecasting of emergency situations in coal mines and executing their transformation into economic-mathematical form to extend them by economic factors. Methods. Analysis of mathematical approaches used in accidents at coal mines predicting. A common group of factors used in the calculation of each model highlighting. Considering of possibility of the introduction of one or another model of economic factors, such as the overall financial performance of the mine, and the amounts allocated for security measures and retraining. In addition, where possible, modeling the above economic indicators, completing their transformation and presenting in a new economic-mathematical form. Results. You can not underestimate the impact of the financial and economic indicators at the level of accidents. Constants commonly used in the construction of predictive models are only the factors of natural and man-made disasters, but the application of economic factors leads to improvement of existing methods and approaches to determining the probability of occurrence of accidents in mines which has been shown in this paper. Conclusion. The practical significance of the paper is to study the relationship between economic component of the mine, and the number and severity of accidents occurring. That will raise prediction accuracy in determining the probability of accidents in coal mines. The authors initiate further research towards the development and improvement of existing methods and approaches to forecasting the level of accidents at the mine through the expansion of mathematical models of economic factors

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