Динамика и потенциал на пазара на жилищни имоти в Североизточен регион за паниране (NUTS 2) в България
Dynamics And Potential of the Residential Real Estate Market in the North-East Region (NUTS 2) in Bulgaria

Summary/Abstract: The real estate market, and residential real estate in particular, has always been of interest to both analysts and potential investors. In this direction, questions such as: Will real estate prices rise in the coming years? Will there be a correction in the market and by how much will it be? Is it a good time to buy (for investment purposes) real estate? etc. are always on the agenda. At the same time, it is difficult and even almost impossible to answer them. Of course, there is always an opportunity to make a specific analysis - for a certain period of time; specific assets etc. In the present article, an attempt is made for such an analysis, which has temporal, geographical and methodological limitations. The author's presumption is that: (1) The different regions of the country differ significantly from each other in a structural and economic nature and it is logical that the dynamics of residential property prices are different in different regions at the NUTS 2 level. (2) The price of all investment assets is modified based on the principles of wave theory. (3) Correct analysis implies using an appropriate time period. Complete (or relatively complete) statistical lines with data for main indicators of the analysis methodology must be available for it. (4) Good analysis includes a combination of fundamental, technical, behavioral, etc. methods and types of analysis. The main objective of the present article is to assess the relevance of the dynamics of residential real estate prices in the North-East region for planning in Bulgaria in comparison with the dynamics of main macroeconomic indicators for the same region. On the basis of the comparative analysis, are made conclusions about the logic or, respectively, the illogicality of the dynamics of these prices and to predict their future change (in the medium and long term). For this purpose, public data on the price of residential real estate and key macroeconomic indicators for a period of 20 years are used. The findings and conclusions in the article should not be taken by readers as investment advice, but only as a basis for making informed individual investment decisions.

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