Dywergencja czy konwergencja starzenia się ludności dużych miast w Polsce?
Divergence or convergence of the aging population of large cities in Poland?

Summary/Abstract: In large cities (with at least 100,000 inhabitants), disproportions in population structures are visible, and the ageing population has two dimensions: both ‘from above’ and ‘from below’. The aim of the study is to assess the advancement and diversity of population ageing in large cities in Poland from the perspective of 2050. The research question to be investigated is ‘will large cities in Poland become similar in terms of ageing?’ Beta- and sigma-convergence models were used for variables characterizing indicators of population structure by biological age group (0–14 years, 15–64 years, 65+ and 80+). The obtained results allow us to conclude that from the perspective of 2050 cities will have become similar by equalizing the indicators for mature age groups (80+, 65+ and 15–64 years). This means that in the future large cities will become similar in population by ageing ‘from the top’. At the same time, until 2050, there will be differentiation in the proportion of children (aged 0–14), and that of adults (aged 15–64) in large cities will increase.

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