Konut Fiyatlarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri ve Yabancıya Konut Satışının Konut Fiyatlarına Etkisinin Değerlendirilmesi: İzmir İli Örneği
Evaluating the Macroeconomic of Housing Prices and the Impact of Foreign Housing Sales on Housing Prices: The Case of İzmir

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the macroeconomic determinants of housing prices in İzmir, Turkey's third-largest city, and the impact of house sales to foreigners on housing prices. For this purpose, the short-term and long-term effects of the number of house sales to foreigners, mortgage interest rates, housing cost index, and consumer price index variables on housing prices in İzmir from January 2020 to December 2023 were analyzed using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model for cointegration. According to the results obtained, the number of house sales to foreigners and the consumer price index increase housing prices in İzmir in the long term, while mortgage interest rates decrease them. The error correction model results show that shocks emerging in the short term return to the long-term equilibrium level after approximately 4.5 months. On the one hand, it is determined that increases in current and one-period lagged mortgage interest rates and the current period inflation rate decrease housing prices in the current period. It is also found that increases in current period housing costs have an increasing effect on current period housing prices, while increases in housing costs from two periods ago have a decreasing effect on current period housing prices.

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