“Transfer Çalımı” Niteliğindeki Futbolcu Transferlerinin Hisse Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisi: Türkiye Süper Ligi 2022-2023 Sezonu
The Impact of Soccer Player Transfers as “Transfer Steal” on Stock Prices: Turkish Super League 2022-2023 Season

Summary/Abstract: Market participants want to be safe in the market they are in. Providing accurate and timely information flow is one of the most important factors that make participants feel safe in the market. The “Efficient Markets Hypothesis” is based on the premise that “disruptions in the flow of information may lead to excessive returns for some investors” and tests the efficiency of the market. The hypothesis categorises the market into strong, semi-strong and weak efficient markets according to the effect of the information emerging in the market on the generation of “abnormal returns”. One of the most widely used market analysis methods in line with the efficient markets hypothesis is the “event study” method. The method reveals whether abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns can be obtained within the “event window”, which includes the period immediately before and immediately after the event (notification, news, announcement, etc.), in line with the “prediction window” created using historical data on the market and the stock. Football, one of the fastest growing and expanding sectors, needs more investors with this growth rate. The football sector, which tries to obtain financing from different sources to meet this need, attracts the attention of investors and they try to take part in the football economy ecosystem with different roles. Factors such as investors continuing to take part in this market, increasing the investment volume and the number of investors are directly proportional to the trust in this ecosystem. The aim of this study is to test market efficiency by using the event study methodology on footballer transfers as “transfer steal”. Market events (announcement of events to the market) generally produce a one-sided and unidirectional effect. The reason for the selection of transfer stealing transfers is that the event (transfer announcement) directly affects two clubs/firms. In addition, the fact that there is no previous study addressing this two-sided effect is also an important factor. Following the corporatisation of sports clubs, the clubs were offered to the public in order to provide financing and had to notify their transfer attempts to the Public Disclosure Platform in line with the “obligation to send material event disclosures to the Public Disclosure Platform”. However, transfer plans are not always realised. Clubs do not notify the Public Disclosure Platform of the attempts that they cannot bring to the transfer stage for different reasons, and they may even face another club in this process. This confrontation may result in the player’s transfer to the rival club. This situation is called “transfer steal” in football jargon. Although it is announced to the market by one of the teams, the effect of this success / failure on the stocks of both teams is inevitable. Sports clubs, which differ from listed firms in many aspects such as profit objectives and financial performance, asset structure and valuation, loyalty and emotional factors, available sources of income, also exhibit differences from other firms in this respect. Following the transfer announcement, investors can also act with the “fan spirit” and achieve abnormal returns. The study is based on four “transfer steals” that took place in the summer transfer period of the 2022-2023 season. Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe in the transfer of Wilfried Zaha, Galatasaray and Beşiktaş in the transfer of Halil Dervişoğlu, Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş in the transfer of Dusan Tadic, and Fenerbahçe and Fenerbahçe in the transfer of Sebastian Szymanski. The event study analysis identified abnormal returns for Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray stocks. Abnormal returns occur especially on the second day following the transfer announcement due to the announcement of the transfers after the stock exchange is closed for trading, the news made on the following day and the effect of social media. While a positive effect was detected in the stocks of the clubs that realised the transfer, a negative effect was detected in the stocks of the clubs that did not. It is concluded that Borsa Istanbul is not an efficient market in this respect. In line with these results, it is also seen that some regulations specific to sports clubs have become necessary.

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