Прогноза за медико-социаляите и демографски последици на пандемията от СПИН
Projection of the socio-medical and demographic consequences of the АIDS pandemic

Summary/Abstract: In its development the AIDS pandemic follows the ways of spreading of sexual disease. The probability of getting infection is determined by the "gamma" distribution (initial exponential growth, followed by a parabolic curve). The exponential stage is namely the initiation of the AIDS diffusion among the sexually active people. The article presents data of the AIDS world development, as well as its demographic consequences — increasing of the death; morbility and invalidation rates, wasting of resources and income. It is probable in case of a large number of infected by the AIDS groups of people the losses of society to go out of control.

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