Transitions Online_Around the Bloc-Turkmenistan May Boost Size of Army-Report
The neutral Central Asian state rarely comments on reports of tension along its border with Afghanistan.
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The neutral Central Asian state rarely comments on reports of tension along its border with Afghanistan.
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Faced with a growing Russian military threat in the Black Sea, Romania has decided to increase its defense spending and modernize is military capabilities. In 2017 Romania began an ambitious ten year re-armament program worth € 8.9 billion, part of the pledge made to its NATO partners to spend 2% of GDP on defense. This analysis takes a look at the naval refurbishment program that Romania will undertake in 2017-2026. It examines the components of the naval modernization program from the perspective of the capabilities they will offer to the Romanian Naval Forces and of how they compare with current and future naval threats in the Black Sea. While the level of ambition reflected in these programs varies a lot, the current acquisitions will reinforce the deterrence value of Romania’s fleet.
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The security situation to the east of NATO and EU borders remains extremely complex. Unresolved conflicts in this region are frozen or are in a desirable state of solving. In addition, Moscow adds new crises and conflicts to those in the Republic of Moldova – the Transnistrian conflict, Georgia - South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in the Azerbaijani conflict. This is the war in the East of Ukraine. All this creates new security risks and threats to the Euro-Atlantic area, starting from the eastern flank of the two organizations. Can these conflicts be resolved? Can all these turbulences be eliminated? In this general security atmosphere, can we hope in the short and even medium that the necessary conditions can be created to negotiate at least a new security system? Answers must be prudent to the questions above. However, for the time being, neither Russia nor the West appear to be able to advance and negotiate a coherent strategy of redefining a new security system in Eastern Europe and in the Wider Black Sea region.
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Derived from the current situation of the international security environment, the “White Paper on Security Policy and the Future of the Bundeswehr” (White Paper 2016) sets standards for Germany’s security policy and defines the mission and tasks of the Bundeswehr. The current development lines are implemented in the “Conception of the Bundeswehr” (KdB) for the german defense department. In this regard, the Bundeswehr is focusing on the future. The new KdB is a long-term policy statement and it stands as a military part of the overall defense planning of the Federal Republic of Germany at home and abroad in interaction with the documents of the Federal Ministry of the Interior and other responsible departments for the security architecture of Germany. The KdB translates the Germany’s will, formulated in the White Paper 2016, to take on more responsibility in the world in guidelines for action for the entire Bundeswehr under the leadership of the Federal Ministry of Defense. Based on the Guiding Principles and other planning parameters, the KdB makes qualitative specifications for designing the “Bundeswehr’s capability profile” consisting of military and civilian capabilities and the future development areas. The KdB is the starting point for all conceptual work and planning. The conclusions of the White Paper 2016, as well as the turning points to the future equipment of the Bundeswehr with materials, personnel and finances are the response to the profound changes in the security situation, in Europe and in the world.
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The European Army is not a new concept. The idea was launched by Winston Churchill in a speech held on August 1950 at the Consultative Assembly of the Council of Europe. Since then, it was a constant subject underpinning key moments of contemporary European political integration. In the present context, due to tensions and evolutions, it advances key enquiries about the European foreign and defense policy, transatlantic relations and, most significantly, the central significance and purpose of the European Union. The paper focuses on the prospects for European defense and security into the twenty-first century and the role Romania could have in such a scenario. It follows recent events and it seeks to address the current Euro-Atlantic puzzle, with emphasis on previous attempts: the Pleven Plan, the Lisbon Treaty, CESDP and past and present US hopes.
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The paper will seek to decipher the significance of deterrence in the Black Sea region and assess the main challenges which shape the dynamic of deterrence in the region. By this logic, the paper will examine the evolving military balance in the Black Sea basin, the impact of Russian’s build-up in the region, the complicated web of regional security agendas- especially important being Turkey’s growing strategic unpredictability-, as well as the main dilemmas facing the West in forging a more consolidated defense posture. The research will be built around two main hypothesis of analysis. The first one assumes the fact that the Black Sea area became an arena of the geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West in conjunction with Russia’s growing military reach and power projection potential which has already created a strategic imbalance in the region. The second one considers that the regional power games and the complex security agendas of the main players in the Black Sea make the regional dynamic highly unpredictable and complicate the Western deterrence posture on the entire eastern flank.
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There is a strong preoccupation within the Chinese political elites to enhance and accelerate the reform of the armed forces in order to prepare the country for its new global role and defend its national interests. The rivalry with southern neighbours for islands and maritime area in South China Sea, the difficult relations with India and geopolitical competition with Japan, also the systemic rivalry with the USA push Chinese elites to strive for a strong military force. The People s Liberation Army is also a guarantee for the Chinese Communist Party, the leading force of the state and society, that a possible popular surge against the regime could be quelled, thus ensuring the stability and social peace within the country. The problem is that an armed force destined for internal strife is not shaped the same way as a force aimed at foreign rivals and power projection in the neighboring areas.
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The study proposes an analysis of the security environment of the Greater Black Sea Area in the light of the consequences of two of the major crises of area in the last decade of the XXIth century. Both of those crises – the conflict in Ukraine and the aborted military coup in Turkey – are analyzed in depth with their roots, past premises and present developments examined. For each of them, an extensive discussion is provided about the role and the impact on the balance of risks and threats on the regional and European level. A correlation and a study on the impact of those crises on the regional and European security environment ends this demarche.
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The dynamic of Russian-American relations stands as a core vector in shaping the systemic power configuration. The „reset” policy promoted by president Obama, although ended in failure, showed that the cooperation with Russia is possible and desirable in managing specific/sectorial issues. The new president Trump may seek a renewed dialogue towards Moscow but, nevertheless, the new threats posses by Russia requires a more balanced approach which needs to avoid the mistakes of the previous „reset”. As part of this equation, a substantial military engagement of the American forces in Europe and credible deterrence measures on the Eastern flank should not be compromised as part of a potential strategic “getting along” with Russia.
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The development of prospective studies and game theory became a crucial activity for many international and national organisation, especially in times of increasing dynamism and complexity. The aim of this article is to present the usefulness of developing foresight by the means of war-games or strategic simulations. “War-gaming”, a roleplaying simulation of a dynamic situation, has been used mainly by the military, but more recently, it has also been used in the context of competitive intelligence and strategy-testing. The article is divided in two sections. The first section consists of a theoretical presentation of the concept of war-gaming and simulations and its specific elements. The second section is a case study that will focus on a simulation made on China’s foreign policy that will highlight the scenarios outlined as products and strategic takeaways of such an apparatus.
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Over the past three decades relations between the United States and the People’s Republic of China have evolved so broadly that they now encompass a full range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. The main challenge for both countries is the way in which their relationship could be managed to prevent China’s economic and military rise from generating acute competition that would lead to conflict and incalculable damage to the two nations. Statements of good intentions notwithstanding, relations remain influenced by deep mutual mistrust, and this mistrust is rooted in the opposing perceptions of the two countries. The article reviews the current status of bilateral relations to include the persistent mutual distrust; cooperation on various issues.
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This article is an in-depth assessment of the limitations of the Western counterinsurgency contemporary discourse based on readings of classical COIN theorists, but also taking into consideration the post 9/11 experience of the current COIN practitioners. The main limitation is focused on the imperative to influence the leadership of the host nation and is related to the dependence of the expeditionary COIN paradigm on a functional, reasonable effective administrative machinery/apparatus in the host nation where the intervention happens. At the same time the political will and interests of the host nation political actors is a key variable for a successful expeditionary COIN campaign. The key question becomes then to what extent are the political interests of the host nation leaders aligned with the ones of the expeditionary actor?
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Attorneys and philosophers have presented detailed answers to the question of when it is permissible to break laws, some of which begin and end with the word “never.” Others answer “always” if reasons of state are compelling. To compound confusion, governments often write special laws for their “spies” and other “intelligence professionals”. Some of these laws are publicly known, but others are classified, like a significant fraction of US NSDD’s (National Security Decision Directives) and NSPD’s (National Security Presidential Directives). So what is forbidden for ordinary citizens may be legally “OK” for intelligence professionals, but citizens cannot tell because some of the laws are secret laws administered by secret courts like the FISA court in the USA. This situation can easily degenerate into simple codes: like “Do anything you need to accomplish your mission, but do not get caught” which has been noted by several CIA veterans. That noted, the CIA may be among the more restrained intelligence agencies in the world, because it is besieged by lawyers who have some actual laws to work with, unlike the secret services of some other countries. A real professional in the field of intelligence will never behave as a barbarian and will avoid torturing prisoners, for the sake of the national security’s future.
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The purpose of this Paper is to take a fresh look at gender mainstreaming in national armed forces and how such reforms can pave the way for more effective and accountable international operations. In the context of interventions in conflict situations and stability operations, understanding gender roles facilitates the promotion of human security. The Paper stresses the importance of the UN women, peace and security resolutions which devote particular attention to how states prepare their personnel for deployment to peace and stability operations. Lessons learned by countries like Romania underscore that gender mainstreaming is a cornerstone of defense transformation.
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The present paper analyses NATO-Russia relations of cooperation by focusing on the missile defence area. Cooperation in the area of the theatre missile defence system has been endorsed by the NATO-Russia Founding Act as a key area of potential cooperation, which also happens to be the motive of acute tension between Russia and NATO on the one hand and the United States on the other hand. The missile defence dimension is analysed as part of a broader framework, which is NATO political and geographical enlargement. In relation to the cooperation on missile defence, an important question is addressed through this paper, which is: Why did Russia engage to cooperate with NATO members on missile defence, if it believes to modify the balance of power? Can we call it cooperation? The limitation of my research is provided by the technological progress, which could not be measured and most definitely, it could not be anticipated its potential impact on the NATO-Russia cooperation in the missile defence area. A limitation of my research is also given by the evolution and potential changes made to the NATO ALTBMD plans and U.S. EPAA plans.
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The Syrian civil war is carried up along religious lines (the Alawi and Shia population generally supports Assad, while the more numerous Sunni Syrians favor the rebels), there are fighters coming from other states (Lebanon, Irak, Jordan, Iran but also Muslims from EU countries) and there is also a proxy war. States such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey are sending weapons, money and instructors for the opposing camps in Syria, thus they indirectly fight, in remote areas, by instrumentalizing the Syrian forces. Russia and Iran are protecting the Assad regime, fearing otherwise they would lose a valuable geopolitical partner and the Russian-controlled maritime basis of Tartrus. Transnational extremist groups like Hizbollah and Al Qaeda affiliates are already present in the Syrian conflict. A crucial role could be played by Israel, which is currently defending itself, often in a pre-emptive way, against possible aggressors from Syria. The main lesson learned is that the necessary Arab Spring, if improperly managed and agreed by the various local actors, could turn extremely deadly and prevent democratisation and normal life for people.
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The global market of illegal firearms remains one of the most challenging matters on the international agenda. Governments, NGOs and academia are involved in a struggle to find a solution. However many governments manifest an ambivalent attitude towards the matter: as producers or consumers of security items they favor a booming commerce which holds enormous potential for growth; as accountants towards public concerns they aim to regulate the sources of violence. India is such an ambivalent case. On the one hand it aims to fully mature as a global power and has become the most avid buyer of weapons. One the other hand India needs to tackle an illicit arms black market fuelling domestic crime and internal insurgencies. Looking beyond empirical facts the existence and persistene of transnational toxic networks has to be seen as the failure of the Westphalian model.
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There is a new school of American foreign policy – the declinist school recommending the retrenchment of American presence in the system to prevent what it claims is the early sign of America’s economic and military relative power decline caused by Washington’s overstretch. This article takes a closer look at the declinist theses in the military field and finds they are not supported by conclusive and causal empirical evidence; rather, the empirical evidence it provides is circumstantial, while the estimates of the costs of switching to a restrained grand strategy are only presumed to be lower. I look into the economics of the U.S.’ defense spending, including its contribution to NATO budgets support European security, and conclude they do not fully or conclusively support the declinist theses. And while retrenchment or offshore balancing might be theoretically-sound recommendations, they have more to do with managing expectations about America’s future power and status rather than identifying solutions for the short-term problems Washington is confronted with. But implementing these restrained grand strategies might not yield the expected strategic results because while the U.S. might be more secure in isolation, while it may pay less for that security in hindsight and remain the global military Goliath, the winner of the strategic game at the global level, it will no longer be a global Leader.
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The trans-Atlantic alliance must confront a number of fundamental strategic questions about its future. Unpredictability becomes the very essence of security. Political transitions in MENA, cyber security threats and America’s increasing focus on Asia, these are collective proves that NATO has entered a new age. This Paper addresses future threats to NATO, challenges confronting the alliance in addressing them, and a path for moving forward. Conclusion is that the allies must acknowledge that their long-term security will be in jeopardy unless they make difficult decisions about priorities settled at the Chicago Summit. Smart Defense is a new constructive mind-set that could nevertheless become a vulnerable initiative, since the allies will be under considerable pressure to demonstrate concrete deliverables in this area.
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A member of NATO and the EU, Romania is also focusing efforts on bilateral relations as well, strategic and special partnerships being a solid component of these relations. Military capabilities are more and more influenced by the perspective of the future global challenges and bilateral efforts are a good start for building such modern capabilities. Allocated resources are extremely important, the way they are spent and the invested made being the crucial difference in between now and future military cooperation.
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