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Ukraine 2024: Is there a possibility of ending the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2025?

Author(s): Author Not Specified / Language(s): English

As the Russo-Ukrainian war enters its third year, there is considerable anticipation across Europe for its resolution, given the substantial human and material toll on both sides. Many questions loom over Europe regarding this protracted war, which unexpectedly erupted on the continent's doorstep. Chief among these concerns is how will the war conclude in the next twelve months, and particularly - will Europe continue to support official Kiev. How long can the burdensome financial support to Ukraine be sustained? What impact might the upcoming US presidential elections at the end of the year have, especially if Republican Donald Trump wins? Is there a possibility of ending the war before 2025? Foremost remains the question - how long can Europe effectively insist on its exhaustive financial support to Ukraine?

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Swiss model for Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author(s): Franjo Topić / Language(s): English

HerzegovinaAlmost thirty years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is still in a sort of coma, and some say that there has never been a worse crisis, which is often said since the war. This text is not daily-political and should not be interpreted as such, but the thinking of an engaged intellectual who cares about all of Bosnia and Herzegovina and all the citizens and peoples of this country, and especially about peace in BiH and the world. As the famous saying goes: Without a peaceful Bosnia, there is no peaceful Europe. Now BiH has a chance on March 21, 2024 to start negotiations for joining the European Union, which is truly the most important political fact since Dayton.

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Terror, Terrorism and the search for destructive forms of Reparative Justice

Author(s): Danila Genovese / Language(s): English

By presenting an analysis of my four-year ethnographical work with members of al Ghurabaa and the Saved Sect, two British Islamist parties banned for glorifying terrorism (Terrorism Act 2006, section 2), and partially involved in terrorist attacks in Britain and abroad, this article attempts to open up new lines of enquiry on Islamism, Islamists in Britain and the dynamics of radicalization among young Islamists, as members of a minority community in Britain.

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2023 Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wagnerization of BiH Brčko District

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Milorad Dodik (SNSD) has launched a major offensive against Serbia and its leadership with the intent to try to force the Serbian leadership to leave aside all the numerous problems and challenges it is facing and completely focus on the defense of his “personality and works.” The Republika Srpska National Assembly (NSRS) adopted the Law on Modifications and Amendments to the Republika Srpska Criminal Code, which reintroduced after a period of 20 years criminalization of defamation and included defamation in the criminal legislation. The Law was poorly and unprofessionally developed. According to the adopted law the persecution is done by the office of the prosecutor you, as the other side is not an individual but the state (office of the prosecutor). Small media outlets, which are at the verge of survival, will disappear. Self-censorship by the media will occur. Provisions of the criminal legislation need to be unequivocal, as otherwise there will be confusing unpredictability in public space. The law has standards. International standards are against criminalization of defamation. BiH has no strong democratic institutions. Deterioration of defamation is a consequence of a broader trend of increase in populism in the region.

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2023 Kosovo: Debacle of International Community in Kosovo

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Crime in Kosovo has its roots in the period of Kosovo’s government-in-exile. The epicenter of crime includes the former commanders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK-OVK) and (para)intelligence services (ShIK), who acted in cooperation with political structures. Although the ShIK was officially dissolved in 2008 for the purposes of establishment of the official Kosovo Intelligence Agency, it still operates unofficially. There are strong connections between the current official and unofficial opposition political leaders and the enormous amounts of money, which has been collected through various funds. The Vendlindja thrret (Homeland Calling) fund was used to collect money in Europe and is controlled by the leaders of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK). The Kosovo People’s Movement Levizja Popullore e Kosoves was established in 1997-98 and it collected money from the diaspora. In 1999 the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) was established from it. In 1991, the 3% Fund was created under the control of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK). Dubious activities are affiliated with the closest family members of former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi (PDK). In fact, a member of his family had a special role in the Kosovo Insurance Bureau (BKS) and controlled the overall financial system through the Central Bank of Kosovo (BQK). Kurti’s government abolished the popularly called “Thaci’s tax.”

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2023 Montenegro: Spajić's dual citizenship a serious problem for NATO?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Early parliamentary elections in Montenegro were held on 11 June 2023. However, the official election results were publicized only on 14 July 2023. The parties that won the largest number of votes from the voters for the Parliament of Montenegro, which has 81 representatives, include the Europe Now Movement /Pokret Evropa sad/ which won 25.53% of votes (24 representatives), the Together Coalition /Zajedno/ (DPS, SD, LP, DUA) 23.22% (21 representatives), the For the Future of Montenegro coalition /Za budućnost Crne Gore/ (NSD, DNP, RP) 14.74% (13 representatives), the Bravery Counts coalition /Hrabro se broji/ (Democrats and URA) 12.48% (11 representatives), Bosniak Party 7.08% (6 representatives), Albanian Forum 1.91% (2 representatives), the For You coalition /Za tebe/ (SNP and Demos) 3.13% (2 representatives), the Croat minority list On the Right Side of the World /Na pravoj strani svijeta –HGI/ 0.74% (1 representative) and the Albanian minority Albanian Alliance coalition /Albanska alijansa/ 1.49% (1 representative).

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2023 Ukraine Crisis: Has the “Great Game” between the West and China already begun?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Historians and geopolitical experts usually seek major shifts to understand and explain the developments in the world, believing they will find answers in any major militarypolitical development. The shifts in the last century included a number of major events, each of which was considered a “milestone” towards a new phase in international relations. Maybe the most prominent of all the events were the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 on the United States of America, which constituted the first foreign attack on US soil since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (US port on Hawaii’s island of Oahu). The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, with major human losses, followed. However, they did not inform the geopolitical situation in the world in the 21st century, which remained the same as we knew it since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the early nineties of the 20th century- dominance of the West in the decision making processes at the global level, despite the Russian and Chinese opposition to certain issues. Namely, it was only limited opposition, as seen in the case of the war in Iraq.

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Hindered: a frozen conflict in Ukraine

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam on June 6 has evoked strong moral loathing against Russia, the alleged perpetrator according to major Western international media, and considerably diminished momentum toward a frozen conflict in Ukraine. The incident has spoiled the common understanding in the making across major Western countries that, given the prospect for further conflict protraction, a cessation of hostilities there is prerequisite to an eventual political settlement or at least a formal cease-fire.

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2023 Local Elections in Albania: Choice between Drug Cartels and/or Parliamentary Republic?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In the Republic of Albania the next local elections are scheduled to take place on 14 May 2023. The last local elections, which were held on 30 June 2019, were boycotted by the opposition, while the turnout at the elections was only 21.6%. As a result, all positions in local self-governance authorities were occupied by the candidates of the Socialist Party (PS) headed by Edi Rama. The last local elections in Albania were conducted in an atmosphere of tensions, after the Albanian opposition had withdrawn from the work of the Parliament and organized political activities on the streets of Tirana at which it requested the resignation of Prime Minister Rama, establishment of an interim government and holding of general elections.

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The Russia-Ukraine warfare as the final stage of U.S.-Russia proxy war in Donbas (2014-2022)

Author(s): Masahiro Matsumura / Language(s): English

After thirteen months since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine warfare, neither country will likely be able to achieve absolute victory[2], while confronting the daunting possibility of war protraction. Thus, now is high time to identify its root cause in search for an end to the warfare. True, Russian’s aggression against Ukraine is evident, but it is a result, rather than a cause, of the circumstances, as in the common saying “there is no smoke without fire”. Given that Ukraine neither made an armed attack nor deliberated an imminent attack against Russia, its armed invasion seems to constitute a quintessential case of one nation-state’s unprovoked aggression against another according to basic international law. Yet, Russian President Vladimir Putin has justified the invasion by invoking “the responsibility to protect”, another international law principle. It is often applied to an ethnic conflict in an independent state that involves mass atrocity crimes, such as genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, allowing another state (or states) to militarily intervene for stopping these acts in the name of international community. Putin has claimed that the invasion forces are carrying a special military operation aimed to demilitarize and de-Nazifying Ukraine and to stop Ukraine’s armed forces from committing mass atrocities in the Donbas[3]. Now that Russia has recognized the independence of two former Donbas oblasts[4] and concluded security treaties with them, the legal status of the armed conflict has arguably been changed from an internal to an inter-state one. After that, Putin may also justify an intervention by invoking the right of collective self-defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.

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Putin’s War, ramifications for China

Author(s): J Scott Younger / Language(s): English

Thirteen months into the war in Ukraine and it is effectively stalemate, although there remains bitter confrontation around the town of Bakhmut as well as an almost daily arrival of missiles or armed drones, although most of these are shot down before they cause harm. Four people were killed in the last foray in the Kyiv surrounds. Putin cannot win the war in this way, which he knows. He has just had a visit from President Xi Jinping of China to show that he still enjoys Xi’s support, except in the form of direct military assistance, which he needs. China is ostensibly trying to broker a peace deal. They are embarrassed by this war; it is affecting China’s trade, not just with Ukraine, but other countries as well, particularly if these nations have sympathy for Ukraine. However, a peace deal usually would require a measure of compromise on behalf of the warring parties. And Ukraine has, with some justification, says that Russia has to withdraw entirely from any Ukrainian lands they have taken. Russia would therefore have no land-take as a result for all the trouble and damage, never mind acts of genocide that some of their troops have perpetrated.

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2023 Kosovo 2023: Serb community could permanently cut ties with authorities in Pristina?

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In Kosovo, extraordinary local elections will be held on 23 April 2023 in four predominantly Serb municipalities in the north of Kosovo (Severna Mitrovica, Leposavić, Zubin Potok and Zvečan) to elect the municipal mayors as well as councilors for the municipal councils in Leposavić and Zvečan. The extraordinary local elections will be held after the mayors and municipal councilors from the Srpska lista /Serb List/ party had left the Kosovo institutions in four municipalities in the north of Kosovo as a protest against the decision of the Kosovo Government on mandatory reregistration of vehicles from former Serbian (KM) to RKS registration plates. The elections were to be held on 18 December 2022, but due to unfavorable security situation have been postponed for 23 April 2023. The official election campaign will take place from 4 April to 21 April 2023.

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2023 Türkiye: Most Important Elections on the 100th Anniversary of Establishment of the Republic of Türkiye - Country at a Turning Point

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Türkiye is preparing to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on 14 May 2023, after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of the Republic of Türkiye, had announced that the date of the elections will be moved from the previously scheduled 18 June to 14 May 2023. These elections in Türkiye have been described as “the most important in the history of the country”[2]since the inception of the Republic. In addition to a plethora of parties and presidential candidates, there is also a consensus both within and outside Turkey that this time the elections will be a turning point for the future of the country. The importance of these twenty eighth presidential and parliamentary elections in Türkiye is derived from the fact that they are taking place 100 years after the establishment of the modern Republic of Türkiye by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, and the Republic is entering the second century of its existence under very complex global circumstances.

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2023 North Macedonia: In Anticipation of the Biggest Security-Intelligence Attack

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

After the establishment of Zoran Zaev’s (SDSM) Government in 2017 the Republic of North Macedonia managed to achieve historic successes. In addition to the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with the Republic of. Bulgaria, the law on improvement of the use of languages of other ethnic communities was also adopted. The Prespa agreement with Greece provided for the unblocking of the Euro-Atlantic integration process. North Macedonia became a full-fledged member of NATO in March 2020 and opened the membership talks with the European Union. The historic successes were crowned with the recognition of the autocephaly of the Macedonian Orthodox Church – Ohrid Archbishopic (MPC-OA) in 2022.

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2023 Parliamentary Elections in Greece: Uncertainty as Never Before

Author(s): Tomi Dimitrovski / Language(s): English

Greece was the first country from the region that joined the European Union. Namely, Greece became and EU member in 1981, a member of the Schengen Zone in 1992, and it joined the Eurozone in 2001. Greece has been a NATO member since 1952. As it is surrounded by three seas, specifically the Ionian Sea, Aegean Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea, Greece has a specific geostrategic position. The United States of America and Greece cultivate friendly relations. Nevertheless, it is important to note that majority of the Greek population is of Orthodox religion, and a part of the population harbors sympathies for Russia. This does not constitute any problem for the strategic orientation of the country towards the EU and NATO. The US Navy has its naval base (in the Souda Bay) at the Crete Island since 1951. In 2021, the US and Greece signed an agreement that allows the US military to utilize three more military bases on the Aegean coast of Greece – in Volos, Litochoro, and Alexandroupolis.

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2023 Parliamentary Elections in Montenegro: Young Voters Will Decide the Elections

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The early parliamentary elections, scheduled to take place on 11 June 2023, will be the twelfth parliamentary elections since the introduction of a multi-party system and the sixth since Montenegro gained its independence. There are around 542 thousand eligible voters registered in the central electoral roll. Montenegro has a proportional electoral system in which the entire country constitutes one electoral unit. At the elections a total of 81 representatives will be elected to the Montenegro’s Parliament. The election threshold is 3%.

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Victory of anti-Đukanović and anti-DPS block

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

In Montenegro, the twelfth parliamentary elections since the introduction of a multiparty system and the sixth since Montenegro gained its independence will take place on 11 June 2023, according to a proportional electoral system in which the entire country is one electoral unit. There are 542,468 eligible voters. At the elections 81 representatives will be elected to the Montenegro’s Parliament. The election threshold is 3%. A total of 15 political subjects will participate in the elections.

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2023 Ukraine Crisis: Implications of Russia-Ukraine War on Middle East

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for 16 months already, has generated significant implications of the political scene of the Middle East, where the war has exposed the complexities of the calculations with which the states of the region are faced as a result of the escalation of international relations and the siding of the countries world-wide with one of the two groups – the group of the US and its western allies on one side and the Russian and China–led group on the other. The war also had repercussions on the geopolitical orientation of the states, as well as bilateral relations between the countries of the region and global powers.

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2023 Kosovo: Implementation of Brussels and Washington agreements - Path to Enduring Peace and Long-term Stability

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

The latest developments at the north of Kosovo are reminiscent of the events from the nineties of the past century and threaten to escalate into conflict. Over the past several years there was a noticeable absence of EU-mediated dialogue between official Belgrade and Pristina. The responsibility does not rest just with the participants in the dialogue but also with the EU and the entire international community, which has proven to be inert and ineffective in Kosovo and the Western Balkans. The billions of euros/dollars of EU and US taxpayers’ money that were spent have yielded modest results.

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2023 Bosnia and Hercegovina: Putinians to establish institutional control of BiH

Author(s): Not Specified Author / Language(s): English

Bosnia and Herzegovina held its nineth general elections on 2 October 2022. At the elections, members of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, representatives in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, representatives in the House of Representatives of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, President of the Republika Srpska, two vicepresidents of Republika Srpska, representatives in the Republika Srpska National Assembly (NSRS), and representatives in the assemblies of 10 cantons in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina were elected directly. Then, delegates to the BiH House of Peoples, FBiH House of Peoples and the Republika Srpska (RS) Council of Peoples were elected indirectly.

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