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POLAND’S SECOND RETURN TO EUROPE?

Author(s): Paweł Świeboda / Language(s): English

Keywords: Weimar Triangle; Donald Tusk;

Donald Tusk, the new Polish Prime Minister, wants to bring Poland back to the heart of Europe, rebuilding ties with Germany and France to create a ‘Weimar Triangle’, lessening tensions with Russia, and trying to make the country a genuine player in European foreign policy. The new Government will try to rebalance ist relationship with the United States, slowing down the move towards missile defence and withdrawing its troops from Iraq. Although there will be a change of style on contentious issues like Russia, the new government will still be an ‘assertive partner’ opting out of the Charter of Fundamental Rights; unlikely to join the euro; and likely to put up a ﬁ ght against reform of the EU budget.Co-habitation with President Lech Kaczyński will create tensions but the government has the constitutional powers and the moral clout to set the agenda.

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Balking the Blunders in the Balkans: The Western Strategy

Author(s): Jan Havránek,Filip Tesař / Language(s): English

Keywords: Balkan region; Western presence in the region; migration; EU; NATO; Security; civil management; strategy;

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the West was obliged to deal with several crises in the Balkans and pledged to a complete reconstruction of the post-war situation in the region. During this demanding process, the Western countries however maximised their traditional stereotyped attitudes towards the Balkan countries. Both the European Union and the United States have typecast the Balkan states according to the extent of the internal problems of these states, and according to their own ability to deal with such issues. Despite the good intentions behind the acting of the West, this process resulted in a mixture of shambolic strategies that have made the Western presence in the region very complicated. The West has been gradually loosing its military and managing respect, given its reluctance to pursue the proclaimed objectives. Such disinclination to act has played into the hands of the local bosses, who very soon found out how the system can be abused in order to satisfy both their electorate and the Western custodians. Nowadays, it is clear that such a hesitant attitude of the West towards the Balkans is no longer sustainable. A significant change in the Western strategy towards the Balkan countries is required, should the integration of the Balkans into the Western structures (i.e. NATO, EU) be successful.

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The EU and the Refugees: The Way Forward

Author(s): Michal Šimečka,Benjamin Tallis,Vít Beneš,Petr Kratochvíl / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Refugees; migration policy; solidarity; securitization; Common European Asylum Service; EU Immigration Code;

The EU has always existed in the dual world of strongly professed universal values and its ability to accommodate the mundane interests of its member states. However, this – at times fruitful – tension has recently come under so much strain that it threatens to bring down not only the EU's always fragile foreign policy consensus, but even the most fundamental freedoms on which the EU has been built, such as the free movement of people, and which it has come to stand for in the eyes of its populations. The first blow came with the Eurozone crisis, and the second with the still growing migration malaise. But while the crumbling solidarity during the economic crisis and the negotiations with Greece could still be explained away as a result of rational economic calculus, the current crisis does not offer any such comforts. The two fundamental tenets of the integration ethos – universal values and particular state interests – seem to be at odds as never before. The ultimate question which is so often posed today is whether the EU should comply with the still powerful state-centric push and simply build up the barriers again or whether the time has come for the EU to fulfil its higher calling and take action based on its broader humanitarian obligations.

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The importance of verification and transparency in the nuclear arms-control, nonproliferation and disarmament process

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: verification and transparency; arms-control; nuclear security; USA-Russia arms-control treaties; The INF Treaty; The START I; SORT Treaties;

Since the Cold War period the importance of the importance of verifying the treaty obligations, which is one of the main parts of the strengthening of the common trust, has been continuing until the present. At the same time, in the areas of arms-control and international security, the role of nuclear transparency, with the verification of provided data and treaty obligations as its integral part, has been increasing. The necessity of maintaining predictability, mainly between both of the nuclear superpowers (the US and the RF), which possess about 90% of all nuclear weapons in the world, is connected with the need to maintain the arms-control process and an effective verification procedure in cases of other negotiated treaty instruments being concluded. Nuclear disarmament verification procedures should above all take into consideration political and technical challenges connected with the current decreasing numbers of nuclear weapons while taking into account the protection of sensitive data as well. At all relevant security forums, especially at the 10th NPT Review Conference in 2020, the Czech Republic should support the EU initiatives and all other initiatives in favour of maintaining the US-Russia arms-control architecture, especially the proposed extension of the New START Treaty’s validity and verification mechanism in 2021. The possible participation of Czech experts in various verification initiatives would be highly welcomed as well.

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A global arms control regime on short and medium-range missiles

Author(s): Matúš Halás / Language(s): English

Keywords: INF Treaty; TELs; missile defence system; air-launched cruise missiles; Middle East; South Asia; Europe; East Asia;

A global alternative to the former INF Treaty is a feasible solution to the current crisis of the arms control regime that can significantly improve regional stability in Asia. It will not harm vital interests of its signatories provided it will not limit ground-launched delivery vehicles with a range greater than 3,000 km and existing TELs. Given the shifting security environment in Europe, the EU nations should join the German-led development and procurement of an integrated air and missile defence system. The deterrence dynamics also warrant a French-led joint European development and procurement of air-launched cruise missiles with a range greater than 2,000 km.

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Kick-Starting Cosmopolitan Governance Through Science: The Case of a Giant Laser System

Author(s): Ondřej Ditrych,Nikola Schmidt / Language(s): English

Keywords: Large technical systems (LTS); cosmopolitan governance; CERN; Centralized and Decentralized Machines;

The following policy paper proposes a novel perspective on how large technical systems can enable global governance. We base our argument on several current scientific international collaborations (CERN, ITER) and postulate how their success could be extended to dual-use technologies in space, arguing that the normative frame not the technology itself is fundamental to how it is perceived. We propose that large technical systems, or “scientific machines”, have constitutive power to shape the system of global governance which can be turned to humanity’s advantage if normative frameworks are developed for them. The argument is exemplified on the case of Giant Laser Systems (GLS) such as the Breakthrough Initiatives’ Starshot program which not only may change radically the way stars are studied (and thus enable new scientific discoveries), but can also contribute to solving practical problems such as growing orbital debris and empower global actors to conceive security regimes concerning sensitive technologies in space. In conclusion, recommendations are articulated for a state such as the Czech Republic for which a pragmatic normative framework defined herein provides a useful perspective to look at governance of new technologies that ensures normatively desirable outcomes of sweeping technological change, and stimulate international scientific collaboration with positive spill-over effects to other domains of international cooperation.

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Time to exist and resist: the European Union and Russian political war

Author(s): Mark Galeotti / Language(s): English

Keywords: European Union; Russia; Political war; diplomacy; Kremlin; Geopolitics; political warfare;

Russia is waging a political war campaign of active measures intended to divide, distract, and dismay European states, not as a prelude to any direct military aggression but as a substitute. The institutions of the European Union have made very patchy and often reluctant responses to this campaign, in part as a result of a lack of consensus among member states, in part because the necessary measures – which often focus on cohesion, legitimacy, and more effective counter-intelligence activity – are controversial, complex, long-term and expensive. A primary issue, though, is the dramatically different strategic cultures and operational codes of the EU and Russia. Moscow subscribes to an essentially confrontation, zero-sum perspective that at best interprets the EU’s more inclusive approach as naive, at worse as a pose, concealing malign intent. The EU and member states need to appreciate and understand the nature, scale and objectives of Russia’s political war, and specifically the lack of any set doctrine or “playbook.” This will require deeper investment in expertise within the institutions of the Commission, as well as broadening European understandings of “security.” Addressing issues of corruption, institutional legitimacy, social cohesion and governance is a crucial security concern. Countries at most risk from the ‘legitimacy gap’ are more vulnerable to Russian interference and subversion. The EU must appreciate that as an alliance, weaknesses in the counter-intelligence capacities of one state is a vulnerability for all. There needs to be greater effort on this, and a consensus on the minimum level of acceptable spending on this. The immediate challenge is to act more decisively and collectively to reduce the effectiveness of the instruments used by Moscow in its political war, especially those not simply operating on direct instructions but “adhocrats” seeking to please Moscow. This requires more detailed intelligence gathering, analysis and sharing, which could fall within the remit of INTCEN.

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The significant political declaration and the forthcoming 10th NPT review conference

Author(s): Miroslav Tůma / Language(s): English

Keywords: Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); Political declaration; Nuclear disarmament; TPNW;

The 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (the jubilee of this conference series) will be held at the UN Headquarters in New York from 27th April until the 22nd May, 2020. The importance of its being held has been underlined by not just the escalation of the security situation due to the continued dismantlement of the US-Russia arms-control system and the growing threat of the nuclear arms-race, but also the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the important NPT Treaty as well. On this occasion fifteen ministers of foreign affairs of the NPT’s non-nuclear weapon states, united in The Stockholm Initiative on Nuclear Disarmament, have published the Political Declaration with an Annex in February 2020. The annexed document, above all, appeals to all of the NPT’s participating states to negotiate and accept some measures recommended in the Annex to advance the nuclear disarmament process. The Annex’s list of recommended measures, the so-called stepping stones, is not exhaustive one, as stressed by the authors. However, according to the ministers their implementation could contribute to the deflection of the current dangerous development in the security situation and to the step-by-step implementation of the generally approved vision of the creation of a world without nuclear weapons. The Political Declaration’s appeal, in relation to the necessity to implement all past commitments of previous Review Conferences which remain valid, has been directly focused on five so-called declared nuclear-weapon states (France, Great Britain, the PRC, the RF and the US) and their lacks in the area of nuclear disarmament commitments. One of the main reason for the different position of the majority of the NPT’s non-nuclear weapon states to the solving of nuclear disarmament matters has been the continuation of the modernization of nuclear warheads and their means of delivery, which the nuclear-weapon states has been justified by pointing to the necessity of nuclear deterrence.

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Stability, sustainability and success in the Sahel: the next steps for the Czech engagement

Author(s): Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň,Jan Daniel,Ondřej Ditrych / Language(s): English

Keywords: relations of the Czech Republic with Africa; Sahel; stability and security; UN; peacekeeping mission; sustainability and economy; poverty;

As a follow-up up to the military involvement of the Czech Republic in the region since 2013 and the consequent rural development projects there, the whole-of-government strategy towards the Sahel (G5) is an expression of responsibility and responsiveness to the related security challenges for the European Union and its African partners. By subscribing to the security-development nexus, Czechia recently reinforced its diplomatic presence in the Sahel and spread its activities to the areas of health, migration and civil society. To make its contribution to the Coalition for the Sahel sustainable and complementary to the EU’s efforts, Czechia should update its national strategy to build the Sahel’s forward resilience, expand the governance and development pillars and mainstream human rights and gender. It should also improve the financial planning and mainstream the Sahel in the current budget lines to mobilise domestic expertise, gain public support for the Strategy’s long-term implementation and give credence to the Sahel as a priority during the upcoming Czech presidency of the EU in 2022.

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How should Europe address Iran’s missile proliferation activities?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

Keywords: Iran; Europe; missile activities and threats; Iran’s missile programme; developing missiles;

One of the criticisms that has been leveled at the Iran nuclear agreement officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached with the world powers in 2015 is that it failed to address Iran’s ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile programme provides the means for nuclear delivery should Iran decide to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran’s missile proliferation is particularly destabilizing for the region with detrimental knock-on consequences for Europe. Europe should maintain its pressure on Iran to stop testing missiles that exceed the limits of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and transferring missiles to regional proxies. Where Iran continues with its provocations, the EU should impose sanctions on Iranian and third-party organizations involved in the missile programme, reflecting actions it has taken to counter Iran’s human rights abuses. The E3 countries (Britain, France and Germany) should exert their influence to reinforce the EU’s efforts to strengthen coordination with the United States in using diplomatic channels with countries supporting Iran, such as Russia and China, to foster a more robust international response to the missile threat. The EU should also play a leading role in formalizing constraints on the range of Iran’s missiles. In the short-term, such an agreement would seek to prevent Iran from developing missiles that could strike Europe, with the ultimate objective of broadening restrictions on Iran’s missiles as part of a wider regional arrangement.

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Building planetary defense governance: a proposal for multigenerational, financially sustainable and scientifically beneficial planetary defense

Author(s): Nikola Schmidt / Language(s): English

Keywords: defense governance; Planetary defense; threat;

Planetary defense is a well-established scientific program which is currently reaching its milestone through a demonstration of a kinetic impactor deflection method by the DART space craft. Besides this deflection demonstration mission, planetary defense depends on astronomical observations. However, the threat of being hit by an asteroid is a low probability but high impact natural phenomenon which requires a multigenerational, financially sustainable, and scientifically beneficial program. While the scientists might be interested in discovering asteroids, they might not be interested in following up on them for generations; nor are they experts in building global planetary defense governance. Moreover, planetary defense capabilities, which are successively being developed, will sooner or later be considered as dual-use technologies. Given this dynamic, and to continue the development of planetary defense capabilities, not only spacefaring states need a regime under which they can act if others are under threat. This paper argues that given the milestone of DART and the follow-up HERA mission, the time has come to open a serious discussion over establishing global planetary defense governance in the shape of a planetary defense security community following multilateral principles similar to those of NATO but in a significantly smaller form. Small states have capacities to contribute to such a community (the principle of diffuse responsibility); they do it already in the current scientific planetary defense programs but in case of an imminent threat non-space-faring states need assurance that the existing planetary defense capabilities will be used for their benefit (the principle of indivisibility) and not misused. The answer is to establish a security community. These communities have proved to be surprisingly successful in the past, and the current planetary defense scientific community has almost everything that is needed to begin the discussions over the governance model of how we will defend Earth as humankind if scientists can already demonstrate it.

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The EU’s mission to rebuild Ukraine: problems and priorities

Author(s): Artur KOLDOMASOV,Taras Prodaniuk / Language(s): English

Keywords: EU; Ukraine; Russian invasion of Ukraine; democracy; economy; European solidarity;

Since February 24 of this year, as Russia invaded Ukraine, the economic and political stability in Europe has been disturbed. The continued destruction of Ukraineʼs economy and infrastructure is exacerbating the world crisis and putting parts of the world on the brink of a food crisis. The Ukrainian Recovery Plan presented in Lugano proposes the reconstruction of Ukraine. Since receiving a candidate status, Ukraine is also one step further on its course to membership in the European Union. All this places the EU into the role of the main guardian of the countryʼs post-war reconstruction. This paper recommendsthat the EU and, in particular, the Czech Presidency should organize a comprehensive assistance in this regard and identifies its main priorities. First, besides assisting in upgrading the institutional capacities and efficiency of the central government, the EU should support the local actors and civil society partners in the post-war governance. Second, the post-war recovery should connect Ukraineʼs immediate reconstruction and reform needs and the EUʼs long-term digital and green priorities rather than prioritizing one over the other.

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What can we expect from the 2023 presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey?

Author(s): Pelin Ayan Musil / Language(s): English

Keywords: presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey; People’s Alliance; Labor and Freedom Alliance; Table of Six;

Turkey’s next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for 18 June 2023. These elections constitute a critical juncture for Turkey’s future. They will either put an end to or consolidate the 20 years of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule in the country. Due to a worsening economic crisis and a deepening refugee question, the government policies have lost significant levels of public support in the last two years. Yet, the elections in Turkey are held under unfair conditions due to the government control of the media, misuse of state resources and the vast powers that the executive has over the judicial authorities. The amendments introduced in the election law in April 2022 and the disinformation bill that passed in October 2022 create further advantages for the government in terms of increasing its control over the electoral process. Under these conditions, the success of the oppositional alliances depends on two criteria. First, the alliances must become unified in terms of supporting a joint candidate in the presidential elections both among and within themselves. Second, they must spend extraordinary effort to mobilize the undecided and protest voters, which would give a strong message of their determination to win the elections. If the opposition wins the elections, there will be a new window of opportunity for the EU and the new Turkish administration to prepare the grounds for a positive, stable relationship. Yet, the EU should not expect a speedy recovery in the relations due to mixed stances within the opposition and the recurrent societal perceptions that ‘the EU is biased towards Turkey. ’If the current government is re-elected, the EU should prepare itself for an increased frequency of escalated political tensions with Turkey. The EU should aim to develop a new interest-based framework to cooperate with Turkey in the areas of trade, migration, border protection and energy.

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The Abraham Accords: a game changer for the region and Europe’s role in it?

Author(s): AZRIEL BERMANT / Language(s): English

Keywords: Abraham Accords; normalization agreements; regional cooperations; Israel; Arab states; EU; Palestine;

The normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, that were signed between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan in 2020, have the potential to strengthen economic integration while also fostering wider regional security partnerships. The deepening of regional ties could pave the way for broader cooperation propelling joint efforts in addressing issues such as energy security and climate change. The normalization agreements present new opportunities for cooperation not only for the region but also beyond it, including for the European Union. Yet the Abraham Accords are facing a number of challenges which could constrain the expansion of the normalization process. There is a disparity in how the political elites and the broader Arab public view the Abraham Accords. Furthermore, the new Israeli government led by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu includes several members that hold extreme positions on issues such as the Palestinian question and the status of holy sites in Jerusalem. The new government is liable to take actions that could heighten regional tensions and damage the normalization process. The Abraham Accords are popular in Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan and other countries in the region have a unique opportunity to influence the new Netanyahu government and the wider Israeli public by linking progress on normalization to Israel stopping harmful policies that damage the long-term prospects of peace with the Palestinians. The EU has expressed measured support for the Abraham Accords, but it should actively encourage these states and potential new signatories to the accords to condition progress on Israel stopping counter-productive policies which could lead to a serious escalation in the region.

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Food security in the context of the war in Ukraine

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,CLÉMENT STEUER / Language(s): English

Keywords: War in Ukraine; Russia; Food security; price hike; Norway; Czechia;

The Russian war in Ukraine has revealed the fragilities of the global food system. For European countries, this is both a domestic and an international issue. At the domestic level, the shortage of grains from the Black Sea region has contributed to inflation. At the international level, it threatens the stability of several countries in the Southern neighborhood and offers an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its soft power. In a world more fragmented and impacted by the consequences of climate change, it is vital to develop a more resilient food system. In the shorter term, European countries should strengthen their ability to produce fertilizers, and pursue their efforts to allow the transit of Ukrainian grains to the Middle East and Africa. In the longer term, they should include the Global South in the transition toward a green economy.

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Czech and Norwegian perspectives on resilience in a post-invasion-of-Ukraine context

Author(s): Pernille Rieker,Eskil JAKOBSEN,Jan Daniel / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; Norway; Russian invasion of Ukraine; NATO; Defence; Baseline Requirements for National Resilience;

The resilience thinking in the Czech Republic and Norway has been significantly influenced by the membership of both countries in NATO; however, a closer inspection reveals some significant differences between them and opens a space for their mutual learning. Norway should pay attention to which aspects of national security resilience are strengthened by the membership in the EU as well as the longer debate on the resilience to disinformation in the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic could learn from the Norwegian thinking about the coordination of civil and military efforts in addressing security and military threats.

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Czech and Norwegian perspectives on new security threats concerning Russian war on Ukraine. Energy security

Author(s): Jan Mazač,Jakub M. Godzimirski,Lukáš Tichý,Martin Laryš,Zbyněk Dubský / Language(s): English

Keywords: Czech Republic; Norway; security threats; Russian war on Ukraine; energy system; energy-related risks;

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has disrupted the world’s energy system. The most urgent need was to phase out the EU’s dependence on Russian energy imports and find a quick replacement. In this joint paper, we approach the issue from two different perspectives of the Czech Republic and Norway, looking for intersections and identifying opportunities to strengthen cooperation and facilitate the accelerated energy transition and diversification. We conclude that both countries have taken immediate action in addressing the most pressing energy-related risks. The potential for closer cooperation is obvious. Both countries should maximise the level of collaboration by taking advantage of existing institutional frameworks (NATO and EU/EEA). In the energy dimension, the key to cooperation in the short term is gas (investment in production in Norway, development of export pipelines or protecting critical sub-sea infrastructure). In the longer term, both countries should jointly cooperate on developing of hydrogen market, including production and transportation.

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Building resilience through participation. Lessons from the civil society in Eastern Europe and the western Balkans

Author(s): Clara BURRY,Ondřej Horký-Hlucháň / Language(s): English

Keywords: Civil society; Eastern Europe; Western Balkans; resilience;

In times of multiple crises that affect the sustainable development agenda, resilience has become a buzzword in the international development community. While civil society has been involved in bottom-up resilience building in the global South for quite some time, it is crucial to define the risks that may compromise the underlying values of civil society organisations (CSOs) such as human rights, inclusion, equality and sustainability. Based on the best practices of CSOs from the Eastern Neighbourhood of the European Union (EU) and the Western Balkans, this policy paper identifies the most efficient ways for the donors to support resilience building. Since resilience building is a long-term process, donors and the European institutions particularly, should commit to long-term resilience-building programmes, mobilise the use of local knowledge and thus contribute to addressing the root causes of poverty, inequality, insecurity and unsustainability.

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The future of EU enlargement in a geopolitical perspective

Author(s): Martin Laryš,Daniel Šitera,Matúš Halás,Asya Metodieva,Mats Braun / Language(s): English

Keywords: Geopolitics; EU; NATO security; EU Cohesion Policy; Ukraine; democratic values; Western Balkans;

Non-enlargement and delayed enlargement are active choices by the EU with concrete consequences. Maintaining the status quo is not an option. Enlargement processes are triggered by the application of a potential member state, and EU responses in the field encourage or discourage certain developments independently if we speak of the Western Balkans, Moldova, Georgia, or Ukraine. Progress with the enlargement agenda anchors countries into European structures and serves as a confirmation of their European choice. However, as examples from the Western Balkans show, there is a concrete risk that the EU might end up legitimising autocratic regimes in a bid for progress. The enlargement process must therefore not be decoupled from a clear meritocratic scrutiny. EU membership does not take place in a vacuum. As with previous enlargement rounds, the real security provider is NATO. The EU’s mutual defence clause is not a sufficient security guarantee. It is therefore difficult to conceive of a Ukrainian EU accession without NATO membership. After Ukraine’s accession, in particular the Ukraine army could be a substantial contribution to a European defence system. Other external developments might also contribute to the EU’s development of strategic autonomy. The nine accession countries would contribute with access to raw materials, including critical and strategic raw materials. For instance, Ukraine has a shared third in the world processing of the critical resource material scandium and has the second largest deposits of natural gas in Europe after Norway. The growing size of the EU’s market would enhance the so-called Brussels effect and increase the global relevance of the EU. The nine accession countries would increase the EU’s population from 447 to 513 million. The less developed economies of the countries, however, would be a challenge for the EU’s economic, social, and territorial cohesion. The time schedule for enlargement is crucial. Albeit it is never possible to guarantee a deadline year for enlargement, taking into account the conditionality-based process, setting a target year would be recommended to avoid overly optimistic assumptions in some candidate countries (e.g. Ukraine) as well as to clearly illuminate if EU member states are delaying the process.

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WOMEN FOR PEACE

Author(s): / Language(s): English

Keywords: anti-militarism; pacifism; feminism; peace; solidarity

We are a group of women who, in Black and Silence, express our protest against war. Th is type of protest was by Israeli woman pacifist in January 1988, protesting against the occupation of the Palestinian people, supported by Palestinian and American women. In this manner, the women have demonstrated that women s solidarity confronts us and divides us with well defined aims. In February of this year, Italian woman pacifists in the same way protested their opposition to the war in the Persian Gulf. The same was done by woman pacifists in Germany and Britain. Some weeks ago, Women in Black in Italy protested against the war in Yugoslavia. Women in Black of Belgrade each Wednesday gather in public places to protest, in black and silence, against the war.

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