Quo vadis Észak-Magyarország? A régió lehetséges fejlődési pályáinak ex-ante vizsgálata
Quo vadis Northern Hungary? Ex-ante analysis of the possible development paths of the region

Summary/Abstract: In the last thirty years, the factors influencing the territorial development of the Northern Hungary have developed in an uneven way. The region’s economy fell into a severe recession from the second half of the 1980s after a stagnation in the late 1970s. Government interventions in the early 1990s (e.g. release of state liabilities of large companies, privatization, commitments in privatization contracts, etc.) did not bring any substantial change, which caused a break in the development path of the region. The output has fallen, unemployment has risen, income conditions, infrastructure and the environment have deteriorated. The authors’ decomposition analyses confirm that after the depression of the mid-1990s, first the economic situation of Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén and then Heves county improved, while that of Nógrád county stagnated. Following the recovery in the economic output, the public infrastructure investments (e.g. M3 motorway, district heating reconstructions, industrial park infrastructure, etc.) usually started with a two-to three-year delay. As a result of the economic and monetary policy shift that took place after 2010, the region began to catch up socially and economically to the domestic average, but this process was broken by the crisis caused by the corona virus. After a brief theoretical review of the topic, the authors present indicators suitable for quantifying the development process of the region and the change in the composite index formed on the basis of the indicators. They make an attempt to technically forecast the index for 2020-2024, and then the gained results are corrected with data from an expert panel. Based on this, they examine the chances of restoring the development path of Northern Hungary.

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