Fuzzy Logic Decision-Making Model for Technology Foresight
Fuzzy Logic Decision-Making Model for Technology Foresight

Summary/Abstract: A new decision-making model in technology foresight based on fuzzy logic is proposed. The choice of technology as disruptive or critical doesn’t depend on the subjective expert’s opinion, but bases on the mathematically justified limits of technologies criticality. The basis of the model is the fuzzy inference system by Mamdani algorithm. Five of the most important criteria of criticality have been used as input linguistic variables. A new approach to defining membership functions based on equidistant derivative points is proposed and described in detail. The functioning of the model is considered by example. The influence of the application of different membership functions on the criticality assessment is shown. A comparison between the fuzzy model and classic expert model is also conducted.

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