Tüketici Güven Endeksi ile Pay Piyasası Arasındaki İlişki: G7 Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Zaman Serisi Analizi
The Relationship Between Consumer Confidence Index and Stock Market: A Time Series Analysis on G7 Countries

Summary/Abstract: Purpose – In this study, the long-term relationship between consumer confidence index and stock market return in G7 countries is investigated. For this purpose, monthly consumer confidence index and stock market data of G7 countries for the period January 2014 -November 2020 were used. Design/methodology/approach – Relationships between consumer confidence index and stock market return are analyzed by long-term cointegration and Granger causality analysis. Findings – As a result of the study, it was determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between consumer confidence index and stock market return, and according to their results of the cointegration coefficient estimation model, there is a positive relationship between consumer confidence index and stock market return. As a result of Granger causality analysis, it has been determined that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between consumer confidence index and stock market return. Discussion – The long-term and positive relationship between investor sentiment and stock markets in developed countries has been determined. It can be said that investors in developed countries make investment decisions in line with their confidence in the economy. On the other hand, the increase in the trading volume and return in the stock markets can also increase the confidence of the investors in the markets. Therefore, it can be said that the assumption that investor sentiment affects the stock markets is valid.

• Details
• Contents