Svetsko društvo rizika i zaštita nacionalnih interesa Republike Srbije
STRATEGIC AND SECURITY TRENDS AND PROJECTION OF THE STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK OF THE SECURITY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

Summary/Abstract: Starting from the indisputable fact that security is the primary interest and a key prerequisite for the development of contemporary societies, understanding and assessing current and future trends in the near and distant environment and their impacts on the security of Republic of Serbia are particularly important in defining a framework of its conceptual and strategic preparedness to protect vital national interests. There are many factors that are influencing and will continue to influence in a long-term the security of Republic of Serbia and its environment. The stronger contours of multipolar international order and the emergence of new global participants in world politics, the crisis of the idea of global society and return of realpolitik patterns in international politics, proximity of energy-rich but unstable Arab-Persian and the Caspian basin, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, serious identity crisis and threat to internal cohesion of the European Union, as well as the migrant crisis, certainly represent major factors that will affect the political and security processes in the near and distant environment of the Republic of Serbia. Projection of security trends and challenges that accompany the process of socialization of the Balkans, as an area which is still, in terms of security, the most sensitive part of the European continent, will have a strong reflection on the definition of long-term commitments of the Republic of Serbia. Problems in Kosovo, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as potentially the most explosive issues of the Balkan security, as well as the complexity of socio-economic and political context of the societies in the Balkans, especially their unabated ethnic and religious standoff, complicate the process of converting the Balkans from the conflicting area to the area of lasting peace. Also, monitoring of trends in perception and practice of security, especially regarding the waging of contemporary armed conflicts and the revolution in military affairs, as well as their long-term projection are of great importance in defining the strategic framework of security of the Republic of Serbia, primarily the instruments to protect its security.

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