Modelling of the Unemployment Duration in the Czech Republic Based on Aggregated Complete and Individual Censored Data
Modelling of the Unemployment Duration in the Czech Republic Based on Aggregated Complete and Individual Censored Data

Summary/Abstract: The unemployment rate is considered to be one of the essential characteristics of the state of the economy. Unemployment duration can also describe the situation in the labour market. There are two sources of data on the duration of unemployment in the Czech Republic – data from the Labour Force Sample Survey provided by the Czech Statistical Office (aggregated or individual data) and aggregated data from the database of registered unemployed people held by labour offices under the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. Two parametric lognormal distribution is used to model the distribution of durations quarterly from 1Q 2000 to 2Q 2019. The maximum likelihood estimates of parameters are found from individual data taking into account censored (incomplete observations) when observing unemployment duration; the minimum chi-squared method is used to estimate parameters from aggregated data. Time series of estimated parameters from different data sources, estimation procedures and data types are presented and compared. The relationship between the rate of unemployment and the duration of unemployment is shown.

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