Cari İşlemler Dengesi Fiyat İstikrarını Sağlar mı? Türkiye Ekonomisi için Fourier Alandan Kanıtlar
Can Current Account Balance Maintain Price Stability? Evidence from Fourier Area for Turkish Economy

Summary/Abstract: Price instability and current account imbalance have been the main trouble in the Turkish economy for many years. The applied policies that designate economic growth as the primary target with the purpose of providing economic stability, devaluations upon exchange rate shocks that happened at different periods and related economic uncertainty as well as the instability stemming from the public sector paved the way for inflation and current deficit. Prolonged inflation and current deficit constituted an enormous impediment to economic growth. Central Bank’s association of current balance and price stability for their recent policy preferences drew attention to the relation between these two variables. For this reason, the 1974-2020 current account balance – gross national product ratio and the relationship between current account balance and inflation are analyzed through the Fourier cointegration test. Fourier cointegration test results provide evidence for the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables. With the Fourier causality test, on the other hand, while it has been approved that there is causality from inflation to current account balance, the causality from current account balance to inflation has been rejected.

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