Trade Relations between Vietnam and Bulgaria: Performance and Its Determinants
Trade Relations between Vietnam and Bulgaria: Performance and Its Determinants

Summary/Abstract: Economic cooperation of countries across the world has led to the integration of stock and commodities markets. The group of seven countries (G7) represents the world’s most industrialised and developed economies. In an integrated market, understanding the price discovery mechanism and volatility spillover across markets is crucial for traders, investors and other stakeholders. This paper investigates the return dynamics and volatility Spillover among the stock markets of G7 countries, oil and gold. We apply VAR and GARCH to examine the relationship between the returns and the transmission of volatility between commodities and stock markets. The research is based on the major stock indices of G7 countries for the years between 2009 and 2018. Oil and gold are taken as a proxy for the commodities market. This study begins by examining the cointegration of the stock and commodities market using the Johansen cointegration test. Stochastic volatility models are used to estimate the volatility and its spillover effect. We estimate the volatility spillover index using variance decomposition. The results indicate the presence of an asymmetric volatility spillover effect between the stock and commodities market. The outcome of the study would facilitate the investors and portfolio managers to understand the return dynamics and volatility spillover effect, which is a prerequisite for an investment decision.

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