Prognozowanie upadłości polskich przedsiębiorstw za pomocą azjatyckich modeli wielowymiarowej analizy dyskryminacyjnej
Bankruptcy risk assessment of Polish listed companies using Asian multi-ple discriminant analysis models

Summary/Abstract: Purpose: The main purpose of this article is to evaluate whether multiple discriminant analysis models developed in Malaysia to forecast the bankruptcy of Malaysian indus-trial companies and Singaporean companies can be useful in assessing the risk of bankruptcy of Polish listed companies. Methodology/approach: To test the efficacy of these discriminant models, the financial statements of 25 bankrupt Polish companies and 25 viable companies were used. The accuracy of the classification of these enterprises into two groups (potential bank-ruptcy and companies able to survive on the market) was analyzed using the models developed to forecast the bankruptcy of Malaysian and Singaporean companies. Z-scores for each model were calculated for one year, two years, and three years prior to bankruptcy.Findings: The model developed to forecast the bankruptcy of Malaysian industrial companies correctly classified bankrupted Polish listed companies. However, it incor-rectly classified a large percentage of non-bankrupt companies. The Singaporean model accurately (it was 100% when data from one year prior to bankruptcy was used) assessed the risk of bankruptcy of failed companies. The percentage of correctly classified companies still in business was lower, but still acceptable.Research limitations/implications: It is recommended to test the classification abili-ties of the models using the financial data of Polish companies from various sectors of the economy (separately for selected industries), and in particular, utilizing financial reports of industrial companies.Originality/value: The Polish-language literature often describes bankruptcy forecast-ing methods developed in highly developed countries, such as the USA, Canada, Ger-many and Great Britain. Polish scientists have also developed many bankruptcy forecasting tools. By contrast, little attention has been paid to Asian bankruptcy forecasting methods. The study, the results of which are presented in this article, broadens the knowledge on this subject and makes it possible to test and evaluate the usefulness of such methods for Polish companies.

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