ПАРАДИГМА МІЖНАРОДНИХ ВІДНОСИН У ДОБУ НОВОГО ЧАСУ (КОНЦЕПЦІЯ ПОЛА КЕННЕДІ)
THE PARADIGM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN THE MODERN TIME ERA (PAUL KENNEDY’S CONCEPT)

Summary/Abstract: The article considers the concept of international relations proposed 30 years ago by the famous historian and political analyst Paul Kennedy. The purpose of the article. The author of the article tried to find out how relevant its key provisions are for understanding both the history and the current state of international relations. Methodology: retrospective analysis. Conclusions. P. Kennedy traced and explained how the various Great Powers have risen and fallen, relative to each other, over the five centuries since the formation of the „new monarchies‟ of Western Europe and the beginnings of the transoceanic, global system of states and to the end of the twentieth century. He analyzed in great detail the character and main tendencies of international relations for the last five centuries. Such analysis allowed him to identify the factors that determine the internal logic and content of international relations in the stated period, first of all the economic changes and military conflicts. According to P. Kennedy, the present large actors in the international system are thus compelled to grapple with the twin challenges which have confronted all their predecessors: first, with the uneven pattern of economic growth, which causes some of them to become wealthier (and, usually, stronger), relative to others; and second, with the competitive and occasionally dangerous scene abroad, which forces them to choose between a more immediate military security and a longer-term economic security. So, the concept of P. Kennedy helps not only to a deeper understanding of the historical process in the Modern Age, but also offers methodological tools based on historical analysis to predict – to a certain extent – the tendencies of future international development.

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