Prediktori glasanja za Srpsku naprednu stranku
Voting predictors for Serbian Progressive Party

Summary/Abstract: In this research voting predictors for the Serbian Progressive Party have been examined. It is of special interest to identify the factors of preferences for this political party given the fact that from 2012 this party holds the reigns of executive power in Serbia, that is it has never lost an election and became a part of the opposition. With the implementation of binary logistic regression explanatory power of several variables which were separated into four models (social-demographic; cognitive; media and leader models) were tested and quantified. Analyzed data stem from a survey which was done by a representative random sample of 1800 participants in 2020 as a part of a University in Ohio’s project named „Comparative National Elections Project“. The research has shown that the leader model has the greatest explanatory power, that is a positive opinion about the leader of the Serbian Progressive Party explains the best a vote for that party. Model in which political stances (perception about the state of the economy, democracy, corruption, electoral process, and autocracy) and most-watched media (television programs with national frequency) were examined have somewhat less albeit still significant explanatory power. The social-demographic model has the least explanatory power, and low education is the strongest predictor of this model.

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