Palūkanų normų kaitos ir jos veiksnių tyrimas Lietuvoje 1994–2006 m.
Investigation of Dynamics and its Factors of Interest Rates in Lithuania in 1994-2006

Summary/Abstract: In­te­rest is the amount paid by a bor­ro­wer to a len­der in ex­chan­ge for the use of the len­der's mo­ney for a cer­tain pe­riod. In­te­rest ra­te is the pri­ce of len­ding mo­ney. In­ves­ti­ga­tion of in­te­rest ra­tes dyna­mics and its fac­tors can be car­ried out ac­cor­ding to three main the­o­ries: un­bia­sed ex­pec­ta­tions, liqui­di­ty pre­fe­ren­ce, and mar­ket seg­men­ta­tion the­o­ry. In­te­rest ra­tes’ fac­tors are di­vi­ded in­to three groups: eco­no­mi­cal, po­li­ti­cal, and so­cial fac­tors. Lit­hu­a­nian banks’ lo­an and ti­me de­po­sit in­te­rest ra­tes ana­ly­sis shows, that the­re we­re dec­re­a­sing interest ra­tes and net in­te­rest mar­gin in the pe­riod of 1994–2006. The main re­a­son, which in­flu­en­ced in­te­rest ra­tes to fall, was dec­re­a­sing pri­ce le­vel. Cri­sis in Rus­sia cau­sed sharp inc­re­a­se in lo­an and ti­me de­po­sit in­te­rest ra­tes in 1999. On the ot­her hand, com­pe­ti­tion in the lo­an and ti­me de­po­sit mar­kets beca­me mo­re se­ve­re and it led to a dec­re­a­se in in­te­rest ra­tes. Eco­no­mic cyc­le in Lit­hu­a­nia and ge­ne­ral inte­rest ra­tes le­vel ha­ve the op­po­si­te re­la­tion, which was con­fir­med by cor­re­la­tion ana­ly­sis. As a re­sult of ana­ly­sis the aut­hors ma­ke the in­te­rest ra­tes fo­re­cast. As his­to­ry of last years shows – ECB will increa­se the mi­ni­mum bid ra­te on the main re­fi­nan­cing ope­ra­tions wit­hin li­mits of 0.25–0.5 p. p. This would effect in­te­rest ra­tes le­vel in Lit­hu­a­nia from 0.4 to 0.7 p.p. in 2007. For the re­a­son that in­fla­tion in fast gro­wing coun­try will re­ach 4.5 per­cent (fo­re­cast), re­al in­te­rest ra­te of de­po­sits in most banks will be ne­ga­ti­ve.

• Details
• Contents