PROGNOZOWANIE LICZBY PASAŻERÓW TRANSPORTU LOTNICZEGO W POLSCE
FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT PASSENGERS IN POLAND
Author(s): Michał Gostkowski, Ewelina Porowska, Marcin HalickiSubject(s): Methodology and research technology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Transport / Logistics
Published by: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Keywords: time series; forecasting; exponential smoothing models;
Summary/Abstract: The Polish air transport market constitutes a significant part of the European and world transport services market. Over the years, there has been a high dynamics of growth in the number of air transport passengers. Due to the dynamism of the changes taking place, there has been a need to forecast this phenomenon. The paper presents forecasts of the number of air transport passengers in Poland with the use of exponential smoothing methods: Brown, Holt and Winters in additive and multiplicative versions. The quality of the obtained predictions was also compared based on the calculated ex post errors.
Journal: Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
- Issue Year: XXII/2021
- Issue No: 2
- Page Range: 61-76
- Page Count: 16
- Language: Polish
