Na drodze do „zimnej wojny”? Nowy etap stosunków USA–ChRL
Towards a Cold War? A new stage of USA-PRC relations

Summary/Abstract: At the dawn of the third decade of the 21st century, the thesis about the crucial role of Sino-American relations in the international order seems ever more justified. The 2010s brought a sharp deterioration in this relationship. This trend took the form of a “trade war”, intense rivalry for political influence, an arms race, as well as rapidly deepening mistrust (or even hostility). This article aims to present the reasons of the change, to identify main trends in the current phase of the bilateral relations, and to propose both a short- and a medium-term prognosis for their future development. The starting point of this analysis is a short characteristic of the evolving relationship between the US and the PRC since the latter’s establishment. This allows the author to identify relatively constant disputes and pinpoint the sources of the current conflict. The main factors stabilizing the Sino-American rivalry are also identified. In the following section, the author characterizes the “new normal” in the rivalry between Washington and Beijing which emerged in 2018–2021. In the summary and conclusions the author maps out possible trajectories of future relations in the shot and medium term.

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