A hazai koronavírus-halálozás járási különbségeinek összefüggései az egészségügyi ellátással
The relation between the differences of Coronavirus related deaths in the districts of Hungary and health services

Summary/Abstract: COVID-19 mortality rates (number of deaths / infected) of the Hungarian LAU 1 Districts are statistically modelled in this paper, with feature variables describing the general health conditions and the state of in- and outpatient care of the districts. Our data sources are the databases of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and statements of the National Health Insurance Fund Management (NHIFM). Variables represent the year 2019, as it is the year preceding the global pandemic that started in 2020. Variables from the NHIFM statements describing inpatient care are large in volume, so they are incorporated in our model with the help of clustering. The unfavourable mortality rates of Hungary in international comparison, during the second and third waves of the pandemic highlight the need to investigate the regional differences of the Hungarian COVID-19 mortality indices. Exploring the reasons of regional differences are helping us in understanding the reasons behind the high country-level COVID-19 mortality. Novelty of this paper, compared to previous research, is the creation of a formal statistical model for Hungarian COVID-19 mortality on a district level, using variables describing both the general health conditions and the state of in- and outpatient care of the districts. Our results highlight the connection between the number of nurses at general practitioner services per ten thousand people and the COVID-19 mortality rates at the districts of Hungary. In the districts with a higher than the national average workload at hospitals in active inpatient care and other departments, the number of nurses has a significant negative effect on COVID-19 mortality. This effect cannot be observed in the rest of the districts.

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