Konwergencja realna Polski i strefy euro z perspektywy synchronizacji cykli koniunkturalnych i wymiany wewnątrzgałęziowej
The real convergence of Poland and the euro area from the perspective of the synchronization of business cycles and intra-industry trade

Summary/Abstract: Since the Polish economy is facing new challenges, the debate on introducing the euro once again becomes relevant. Due to the fact that the nominal convergence criteria currently ‘differ’ from the macroeconomic reality even in the euro area itself, it is justified to pay attention to the conditions of real convergence. The aim of the study is to assess the convergence of Poland and the euro area from the perspective of the share of intra-industry trade, as well as the degree of convergence of cyclical fluctuations in these economies. Quantitative research methods were used in the work (statistical analysis). The conducted research shows that the share of IIT in Poland and the euro area (measured by the Grubel-Lloyd index) was characterized by a growing trend, which proves the intensification of trade integration. However, this growth halted at the end of 2016. The growing and relatively high convergence of cyclical fluctuations in the analysed economies (measured by the recursive correlation coefficient) was observed until the end of 2013. In the following years, a decline and then fluctuations in the degree of this convergence were noted. In this context, it should be emphasized that the degree of synchronization of fluctuations in the economic activity of Poland and the euro area was conditioned by specific, asymmetric events for a large part of the research period. In view of the research results obtained, it can be concluded that Poland is characterized by a ‘moderate’ degree of real convergence with the euro area, but it is not advisable to give a definitive and final assessment of the analysed phenomena and answer the question of whether this level is sufficient to introduce the common currency. Therefore, all the dilemmas justify the need to continue and expand research in this area.

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