VREMENSKA SERIJA NOĆENJA SA UKLЈUČENIM STRUKTURNIM PROMENAMA TOKOM PANDEMIJE KOVID 19: IZBOR OPTIMALNOG MODELA
TOURISM SERIES WITH INCLUDED STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC: SELECTION OF THE OPTIMAL MODEL

Summary/Abstract: Tourism is exposed to various risks such as natural disasters, different types of crises, negative propaganda, pandemics, and the like. All these risks affect not only the development of tourism, but also time series models that are subject to analysis. In order to be able to make informed decisions that influence the functioning and further development of the tourism sector, it is necessary to make an accurate analysis of the current situation and to be able to predict the future values of the time series model. Due to the risks stated above, this complex problem requires an in-depth analysis, a selection of an appropriate model and testing the model’s results and predictions. The paper examines time series analyses in the field of tourism and structural changes before and during the pandemic, as well as possible models that can be used to model such series in the future.

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