THE PREDICTABILITY OF COVID-19 CRISIS
THE PREDICTABILITY OF COVID-19 CRISIS

Summary/Abstract: The view that national security cannot be achieved by military security alone has long prevailed in the scientific community, a pandemic caused by COVID-19 painfully confirmed. The most developed world and regional powers, which allocate huge funds from budgets for their national security, succumbed to this invisible enemy. We are witnessing a rethinking of the international security and peace agenda, respectively redefinition of the national security. We are witnessing the formation of a new world order and new relations between the states. In conditions of a pandemic, it has become more than obvious that the states do not cooperate with each other at the required level, they do not help each other, nor exchange data for the common good, but act on their own. Each of them leads a special struggle and tries with all its might and means to protect its citizens, realizing that individual human security also affects the overall national security. Besides its threat to health security, the real impact of COVID-19 is its enormous threat to economic security with far reaching negative consequences on socio-political stability, international relations, peace, and civil rights. COVID-19 may either consolidate global solidarity or it may take humanity on a path toward the demise of globalization and multilateralism. There is no doubt that the world will not be the same again after the end of this pandemic. All this raises the question of whether the COVID-19 crisis could have been foreseen. Whether with the use of special systems for forecasting events and risk measurement could have been possible to obtain approximate results for the hazard from COVID-19 in order to undertake timely measures and activities for hazard management

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