A Scenario of The Development of Organised Crime
A Scenario of The Development of Organised Crime

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this paper is the evaluation of the development and measurement of organized crime. So far, initial steps have been taken in the measurement of organized crime. We would like to contribute to a more detailed examination of the topic. At the same time, the purpose of the paper is also the study of two comparable projects, OCA, and EDGE. The methods used were: a review of domestic and foreign literature, the analysis of the projects OCO and EDGE. We have used the following research methods: an analysis of secondary sources, descriptive method, comparative method, and historical development method. We came to different yet interesting findings in our analysis of the topic: we cannot speak about certainty when we talk about scenarios, we can only talk about likelihood, which is why I turned to the essence of the research carried out ― to the problems of methodology. The findings depend on what kind of methodology one chooses for the planning of future trends. The opinion of experts is that the most appropriate methodology and the optimal choice for predicting trends in the future are scenarios. For a description of the situation, and a measurement in the field of organized crime there are number of problems. We have highlighted the following: an inconsistent definition of acquired data and its relevance, the differences in judicial systems and police registers, the impact of social and political factors and the measurement at an international level. It is important to mention that in the past there was a focus on obtaining quantitative data, and that conclusions were made in relation to this data. Today the emphasis is on quantitative data, but still not to a sufficient degree. Much has already been written about scenarios in different areas of science, unlike in research and the forecasting of organized crime, where scenarios are just coming into use. This paper deals with the comparison of two important projects in the field of organized crime, OCA and EDGE. We are trying to answer the question of which direction we should go from our situation to secure a successful policy in the area of organized crime and its rapid and effective solution in today’s dynamic environment.

• Details
• Contents