La Chine en 2100 : renaissance ou déclin d’une civilisation ? Essai de prospective. Défis extérieurs (I)
China in 2100: Rebirth or Decline of a Civilization? Prospective essay. External Challenges (I)

Summary/Abstract: An active historical current tries to describe the genetics of civilizations, their birth, development and decline. At the end of thirty years of Maoism (1949-1978), China finally finds itself with a GDP of barely $150 billion (similar to that of the Netherlands), absolute poverty for 80% of its population and deep under-urbanization (< 20%). Since 1978, China has experienced a powerful upward cycle of catching up in all areas. The project of "grand rebirth of the Chinese nation" launched by Xi Jinping in 2013 seems to be coming true.However, new elements point in the direction of entering a new cycle, descending this time. This prospective study thus proposes to identify the major external challenges with which China is increasingly confronted and which will structure its future on the horizon by 2100, or much before. In the next issue of the journal, a second article will address internal challenges.

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