Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikası Belirsizliklerinin ABD-Çin Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkileri: Fourier ADF ve Genişletilmiş ARDL ile Bir Analiz
The Impact of Economic and Foreign Trade Policy Uncertainties on the Foreign Trade Balance between U.S. and China: An Analysis with Fourier ADF and Augmented ARDL

Summary/Abstract: Using the Fourier ADF and Augmented ARDL methods, this study analyzes the ways in which economic and trade policy uncertainties in the U.S. and China impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance with China, with reference to the data for the period 2000:Q1-2021:Q4. The analyses showed that more uncertainties in U.S. economic policies had a positive effect on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the long run. As opposed to that, more uncertainties in China's economic policies had a negative effect on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the short and long run. The study also found that more U.S. trade policy uncertainties did not have a significant impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance. On the other hand, more trade policy uncertainties in China were shown to negatively affect the U.S. foreign trade balance with China in the short and long run. All these indications suggest that U.S. trade sanctions against China have no benefits for the U.S. economy. Also, the study established that increases in the real exchange rate had a negative impact on the U.S. foreign trade balance in the short and long run, which justifies the current U.S. policy of forcing China to push up the value of its currency.

• Details
• Contents