BIST Turizm Endeksi ile Döviz Kuru Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi
Analysis of the Relationship Between ISE Tourism Index and Exchange Rate

Summary/Abstract: Purpose – It is important to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the ISE Tourism Index, which has an important place in the service sector, and the exchange rate, and to determine the sensitivity of the tourism index to the exchange rate. In the research, it is aimed to reveal the long-term causality relationship between the exchange rate and the tourism index. Design/Methodology/Approach – In the study, monthly data for the period 2003:M1-2022:M3 for Turkey were used. First of all, whether the series contains a unit root was analyzed by considering the PP and ADF unit root tests. The long-term relationship between the variables was analyzed with the ARDL limit test. In order to measure the causality relationship, Granger Causality test was applied. Findings – According to the ARDL limit test results, a long-term relationship was determined between the variables. According to the Granger Causality test results, a bidirectional causality relationship was determined between the exchange rate and the ISE Tourism Index. Accordingly, it is possible to state that these two variables are the cause of each other. Discussion - It would not be wrong to say that the change in the exchange rate increases or decreases tourism activities or revenues. The result obtained is similar to the results of some of the studies in the literature. It can be stated that businesses and policy makers operating in the tourism sector should consider the changes in exchange rates in their planning.

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