Pensions in 30 years
Pensions in 30 years

Summary/Abstract: The paper presents a variant calculations simulation of the shaping of pensions in Poland in the perspective of the next 30 years. The predicted amount of pensions and the range of charging GDP with pension expenditure as well as the future replacement rate . The run analyses show that, depending on the dynamics of the future economic growth, assuming that the range of charging GDP with pension expenditure would remain at least at the same level, it would be possible to systematically increase the real level of pensions at least 1.7 time, or even 2.98% times . Any potential increase of the range of charging the GDP would lead to an appropriate growth of the real value of pensions, even 3.72 times. However, the relative level of satisfaction of retirement needs, with an increase in average wages would decrease and in the 2050 it could reach even the level of 31.7%. It means that maintaining the replacement rate will require an increase in charging GDP from the current 11.2% to over 16% in 2050.

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