Assessing the Impact of Investment Projects for the Development of Inland Waterway Transport on Social and Economic Indicators in Regions
Assessing the Impact of Investment Projects for the Development of Inland Waterway Transport on Social and Economic Indicators in Regions

Summary/Abstract: Currently, when preparing substantiating materials for investment projects to be included into governmental programs of the Russian Federation, no assessment is performed of the project’s impact on social and economic indicators of constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the investment project is implemented, such as the GRP, the volume of export and shipment of products of own production, reducing the social inequality and unemployment, increasing the total factor-based productivity. Our research hypothesis is the assumption of the positive impact of implementing governmental investment projects on the indicators of social and economic development in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Therefore, the purpose of our research is to assess the impact of implementing investment projects for the development of inland waterway transport infrastructure, that are financed from the federal budget, on the social and economic development indicators in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In our study, we assessed the impact of implementing investment projects for the development of inland waterway transport infrastructure on the social and economic indicators of constituent entities of the Russian Federation using the Difference-in-Differences method and the probabilistic and quantitative assessment of the impact of implementing investment projects on social and economic indicators of constituent entities of the Russian Federation using the Bayesian modelling. The calculations presented in this paper showed that the use of the Bayesian modelling method to assess the probability of the investment projects impact on the indicators of social and economic development in constituent entities of the Russian Federation will allow, before making a decision to launch an investment project, to have an idea about its economic effects for the region. The suggested methodological approach to assessing the impact of investment projects on the social and economic development of regions can be used in the practical activities of public authorities at the stage of selecting investment projects and assessing capital investments.

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