DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE SHOCKS ON HIV PREVALENCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE SHOCKS ON HIV PREVALENCE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Summary/Abstract: This study has investigated the dynamic effects of health expenditure shocks on the mitigation of HIV prevalence in sub-Sahara African region using aggregate time series data. HIV prevalence rate for adults and four components of health expenditure: health expenditure per capita, private health expenditure, public health expenditure and total health expenditure were used as the proxies in our models. Apart from the unit root and the cointegration tests, we also applied the Vector Autoregressive model in the analysis of the impacts of the patterns of persistent common variations of health expenditure shocks transmitted to HIV prevalence and from HIV prevalence to health expenditure. The study established that the response of HIV Prevalence to health expenditure shocks was equi-proportional and prompt. Furthermore, our results indicated that a positive HIV prevalence shock would lead to a consistently diverging negative responses from the health expenditure variables; suggesting that a rise in the tempo of HIV prevalence would exert a persistently negative inter-period effects on health expenditures. The study recommended that health expenditures in the sub-Saharan region should be well-managed in order to mitigate the spread of HIV prevalence effectively and sustainably.

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