HOW THE SECRET INTELLIGENCE SERVICES WILL CHANGE AFTER THE RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR
HOW THE SECRET INTELLIGENCE SERVICES WILL CHANGE AFTER THE RUSSIA – UKRAINE WAR

Summary/Abstract: Intelligence has changed. Secret Services is no longer just about spying or passively watching a target. Espionage chiefs now command secret armies and legions of cyber warriors who can quietly shape international relations itself. Intelligence actively supports diplomacy, peacekeeping and warfare: the entire spectrum of security activities. As traditional interstate wars become more costly, covert action, black propaganda and other forms of secret interventionism become more important. This ranges from proxy warfare to covert action; from targeted killing to disruption activity. Meanwhile, surveillance permeates communications to the point where many feel there is little privacy. Intelligence, and the accelerating technology that surrounds it, have never been more important for the citizen and the state. We will examine: why states choose to use intelligence – including fabricated intelligence for influencing external audiences, the different methods they deploy for doing so, the gains and costs of publicising intelligence, and how open-source third-parties affect this and, therefore, how the use of intelligence during the Russia-Ukraine conflict should be understood within broader historical and contemporary trends. We conclude that while liberal democracies’ use of intelligence in public is to be welcomed, this will need careful risk management - from sources and methods to public trust and politicization- if it is to become a new normal of statecraft moving forward.

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