Covid-19’un Takipteki Kredilere Etkisinin Araştırılması: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz
Investigation of the Effect of Covid-19 on Non-Performing Loans: An Econometric Analysis

Summary/Abstract: The Covid -19 pandemic has spread rapidly by affecting the economic, social and cultural areas all over the world and in Turkey. The pandemic, which poses serious health risks, also affected the banking sector. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the number of weekly cases of Covid-19 in Turkey and the non-performing loan volumes of the Turkish banking sector. In this context, weekly data between 13.05.2020 and 20.05.2022, the date when the first case number was announced in the pandemic, were used. Time series analyzes were used to examine the relationship between variables. In order to determine the stationarity levels of the variables, Zivot-Andrews (1992) unit root tests, in which structural breaks are taken into account, were applied to the data. Whether there is causality between the variables, and if there is a causal relationship, the determination of their direction was tested with the Hatemi-j method in the form of binary analysis. In case of more than two structural breaks in the series, the Maki cointegration test, which ensures the maximum number of structural breaks, was applied. According to the test results, it was concluded that there is a cointegration relationship between the number of covid-19 cases and the volumes of non-performing loans. According to the Hatemi-j test result, a causal relationship was found between the number of cases and the non-performing loan variables.

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