Deniz Güvenliğinde 21. Yüzyıl Tehditlerinin AHP Yöntemiyle Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği
Evaluation of 21st Century Threats in Maritime Security by AHP Method: The Case of Türkiye

Summary/Abstract: In the global political and economic agenda cycle of the 21st century, interest in the seas has spread rapidly. The security of maritime areas, which are central in issues such as transportation, global trade, natural resource reserves, and transfer, has also become a part of national and international security strategies, especially since the beginning of the 2000s. However, different perspectives on the concept of “maritime security” lead to the lack of a single definition of the concept. Therefore, the factors threatening the security in question should be mentioned differently. The absence of widely agreed upon maritime security threats both complicates global cooperation on maritime security and weakens the fight against these threats. Identifying the most serious and common threats to maritime security is essential for joint action in the fight against them. This study aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis in defining the concept of maritime security and to identify the most serious threats to maritime security in the 21st century. For this purpose, 21st-century maritime security threats have been determined within the scope of academic studies, strategy papers, military documents, and reports published by states and international organizations. Then, the severity levels of these threats were determined through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) Method. As a result of the study, the three most important factors threatening maritime security in the 21st century are determined as climate change (with a significance level of 0.3169), marine pollution and environmental problems (with a significance level of 0.2104), and sea boundary disputes between states (with a severity level of 0.1783).

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