Проекции на пандемията от COVID-19 върху факторите на дългосрочния икономически растеж
PROJECTIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE FACTORS OF LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH

Summary/Abstract: As economies recover from the COVID-19 crisis, the question of its long-term effects gains importance. These effects affect macroeconomic development through the factors of production – labor and capital, but also through technical progress and institutional development. The Covid crisis is expected to leave lasting scars on investment, changing the attitudes of companies about how much, what, and where to invest. Changes in consumption and the imposition of new technologies are likely to reinforce these effects. The aim of the article at hand is to synthesize the main issues in the current discussion about the possible effects of the COVID-19 crisis on long-term potential economic growth. To achieve this goal, several studies and analyzes of the problem available to date have been summarized, while at the same time an attempt has been made to clarify the projections on the Bulgarian economy. The results clearly show that the main long-term risk is related to the loss of human capital, accompanied by institutional instability, which together impede the implementation of optimal policies to achieve long-term growth.

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