Studijų proceso analizė taikant išlikimo analizės metodus
Analysis of the study process using survival analysis methods

Summary/Abstract: An increasing number of students at universities and an increasing rate of ‘migration’ both among universities and within a university (only 50 % of students finish Mathematics and Informatics study programme at Vilnius Pedagogical University, the faculty of Mathematics and Informatics) stimulates us to search for and analyze the reasons of such a motion. It is important to know whether a student who leaves the chosen study programme irresponsibly chose it, or whether his choice was determined by other factors. The fact that a student has chosen a wrong study programme becomes clear during the first year at the university. However, it is strange when a student leaves the university during the 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th year. A substantial amount of money has already been invested into his studies and he must have comprehended the system of studies. Thus, it is crucial to reveal the main factors of risks and according to them adjust the study process. One of the possibilities allowing to answer the questions when, how and why the studies were interrupted is survival analysis described in D. Cox’s works in 1972. It allows us to assess the moments of the greatest risk and distinguish its decisive factors. On the basis of survival analysis we were seeking to research life possibilities of Mathematics and Informatics study programme students at Vilnius Pedagogical University, the faculty of Mathematics and Informatics and to estimate which semesters are the riskiest, i. e. when there is the biggest possibility to drop out. We were also looking for the main decisive drop out factors. We presume that evaluation of these facts would allow to adjust entrance to the university, to organize the study process in a more efficient way, to forsee the motion of students as well as to look through the study programmes and improve the quality of studies. Bachelor’s degree day-time study programme students of Mathematics and Informatics who entered the university in 2002–2004 were selected for the research. The analysis of the duration of studies was carried out from 1 September, 2002 until 1 January, 2008. Possibilities to survive of 578 students were analyzed. 318 women (55 %) and 260 men (45 %) participated in the research. The students observed were divided into 3 groups according to their entrance grade (1-low, 2-medium, and 3-high entrance grade). During the process of the research, life tables were created, survival function evaluations were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method, hypotheses were formulated and checked about survival functions among men and women in different entrance grade groups. Risk decisive factors were determined using Cox’s proportional regression analysis. sex of the student...

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