Metoda szacowania rzeczywistej liczby ludności w strefie podmiejskiej. Przykład gminy Czernica (powiat wrocławski)
Estimating the actual population in suburban areas. The case of Czernica municipality (Wrocław suburban zone)

Summary/Abstract: Residential suburbanization is one of the processes, which takes place on a large scale in the vicinity of large cities. The suburban areas of Wrocław are no exception, witnessing a dynamic influx of people and increased construction activity. This article strives to identify the scale of residential suburbanization based on the case study of Czernica municipality, which is part of the suburban area of Wrocław. The discusses the problem of population under estimations is attributed to the failure to comply with obligations of compulsory registration at the place of residence. It led to disparities between the actual local population size and the official statistical records. This analysis seeks to determine how many people actually reside in the Czernica municipality using a proprietary method of estimating the actual number of residents based on pooled statistical data on registered residence originating from the General Electronic Civil Registration System (the PESEL register) from 2012 and spatial data from the Topographic Database (BDOT) of 2013. The article presents the scale of population underestimation in the Czernica municipality in years 2012–2013 and possibilities and limitations in application of the method constructed by authors in other suburban areas.

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