Финансово моделиране в условия на неопределеност
Financial modeling under uncertainty

Summary/Abstract: Financial modeling under uncertainty is an intelligent methodology for examining accounting information. It is developed in connection with the lack of accuracy in the quantitative description of objects in the real economy; reflects the uncertainty, ambiguity and high dynamics of the change of factor influences on the characteristics of the company. By validating conventional means of addiction assessment and analysis, it foregrounds approaches and methods that have the ability to reproduce intelligence. The theoretical and methodological framework of financial modeling under uncertainty is formed by the knowledge of fuzzy sets and related fuzzy quantities, fuzzy mathematics and fuzzy logic. Functionally, it implements the three-stage algorithm for working with controlled approximation – fuzzification the input information, evaluating the complex performance and defuzzification the result. At the same time, the accounting indicators of the company are interpreted according to the characteristics of human thinking, individual/group experience, subjective intuition, preferences. Decision-making is extended to those objects and relationships that are not subject to precise evaluation. Financial management as a whole gains increased utility, ability to emulate human thinking, flexibility, speed, efficiency and easy modifiability.

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