Štruktúrne zmeny v agropotravinárstve Slovenska v dlhodobej perspektíve
STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE AGRI-FOOD SECTOR OF THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC IN THE LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE

Summary/Abstract: The speed of the process of the Slovak agro-food sector adaptation to the world market rules is inadequate. The increasing deficit of foreign trade balance on agricultural and food commodities is a fact that supports the above mentioned conclusion. This way is leading to an increasing external economic dissequilibrium. Generally, agro-food companies remain in loss. They fight with a huge insufficiency of their own resources needed for the purposes of reproduction. The production of value added is not only unstable (this is an usual phenomenon even for developed countries) but is also insufficient and ineffective. Macro-economic studies forecast a decline in value of the economic growth of the Slovak Republic, associated with a possible decrease in the real purchasing power of the population. On the other hand, food consumer prices are not expected to grow faster than in the previous years. This fact however narrows a space for possible increases in the prices of food and agricultural products. With the current rise in prices of inputs stagna-ting (or even falling) prices like this create the preconditions for the complex rationalisation of the agro-food production. Based on experience and development of the developed countries economies, we emphasize the strategic active role of their agribusiness. When an appropriate business climate is created, they can generate new job opportunities, or can initiate new eco-nomic activities and an additional increase in value added. From this point of view, we have tried to prepare the forecast for the agri-food sector (that is the production part of agribusiness) for the time period up to the year 2015. Taking into consideration the recession of agricultural and food production, we conclude that it will stabilize not earlier than year 2000 and options for a positive growth in the agri-food sector will be real after the years 2004-2005. Till 2015 we foresee a reduction of the arable land by cca 70 000 hectare and mea-dows & pastures by cca 20 000 ha. The harvest per hectare for different crops will in-crea-se from 19% to 46%. Grain production will reach the level around 690 kg per inhabitant, that is only 7% higher than the 1998 level. It is supposed a more rapid growth in the production per inhabitant of potatoes, cereals, vegetables and fruits. The increases in the value of animal production per inhabitant are predicted at a lower rate, around 10–16%. Dairy cow production (excluding the milk production) will strengthen remarkably. This will respond to the less intensified use of lower-productive land, that is recently calculated at a space of 900 thousands hectares.

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