Este piața bursieră barometrul economiei? Relația dintre evoluția economică și evoluția bursieră
Is the stock market the barometer of the economy? The relationship between economic development and stock market development

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this paper is to highlight the relationship between the stock market evolution and the economic evolution of Romania. In this regard, descriptive data analysis and a VAR econometric model are used together with the Granger causality test, with the variance decomposition and with the impulse-response functions. The results of the paper show that the main index of BVB, Bet, in the recent years has been in a good development, translated even by a stabilization of returns and by the persistence of their positive values. The econometric model validates that the Bet index can be considered the barometer of the national economy, with stock market returns causing Granger economic growth, and impulse-response functions in turn stating that there is a moderately, but persistently influential relationship for at least a year and a half. A series of implications were proposed for investors and for the representatives of the Bucharest Stock Exchange in the conclusions of the paper.

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