PODAŻOWE I CENOWE KONSEKWENCJE ZMIAN W RZĄDOWYCH PROGRAMACH MIESZKANIOWYCH W POLSCE W LATACH 1998–2021
THE SUPPLY AND PRICING CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN GOVERNMENT HOUSING PROGRAMMES IN POLAND BETWEEN 1998 AND 2021

Summary/Abstract: RESEARCH OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to determine the direction of housing price changes against economic cycles in the context of assessing the effectiveness of government housing programmes. THE RESEARCH PROBLEM AND METHODS: The primary research question is whether and how government housing programmes affect house prices. The research methods used in this paper are critical analysis of the literature and statistical methods such as average annual rate of change in values, linear correlation coefficient, Granger test and harmonic analysis tools. THE PROCESS OF ARGUMENTATION: The article defines the importance of the real estate market and its specific features. It was stressed that real estate price formation is related to economic cycles. It also describes six selected housing programmes introduced by the government during the study period. RESEARCH RESULTS: The results clearly show that housing supply and prices are derived from the economic cycle. The research results show that the best programmes were “Duża ulga Budowlana” and “Mieszkanie na Start”. The supply of dwellings during the validity of these programmes grew the fastest. The changes that occurred in subsequent programmes are no longer covered by business cycles. The periods of validity of the programmes and the turning points of the business cycles of the real estate market do not show a connection. CONCLUSIONS, INNOVATIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS: In a period of a downturn in the real estate market, it may prove necessary to continue and improve government programmes, as without them, the purchase of one’s own property may be reserved only for the most affluent citizens. Therefore, the coming years may be very interesting from the point of view of real estate supply and demand development, which may be low without additional stimulation.

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