WIELKOŚĆ SIŁ ZBROJNYCH POLSKI WOBEC WOJNY NA UKRAINIE
SIZE OF POLAND'S ARMED FORCES IN VIEW OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this article is to formulate an answer to the question of how numerous the Armed Forces of Poland should be, and how many tactical units they should have in light of pre-war methods of calculating defense needs. The methods of conducting calculations were taken from the works of Stefan Rowecki and Tadeusz Kutrzeba and V.K. Trandafilov. The ongoing war in Ukraine assumes not only a positional character, but also becomes a clash in which mass begins to play a decisive role. This justifies the choice of calculation methods referring to the times of mass warfare. Among the main problems with the method of calculation was the translation to today's realities of the assumption made by Trandafilov that the density of fire for effective defense should be 5 shells per minute per kilometer of front. Since it was not possible to find contemporary efficiency indicators, the assumption was made that a modern battalion ensures the conduct of an effective defense on a 5-kilometer frontline. This is supported by both the models associated with the calculation division and the tactical norms expressed in the regulations. The main contradiction revealed in the work concerns the differences between the actual state of the army and the calculated defense needs. Poland has 4 divisions, and the ongoing discussion since 2018 is about increasing their number to 5. In contrast, the calculations made show that a minimum of 16 such tactical unions are needed for a 650-kilometer-long dangerous border.

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