Problemy i wyzwania prognozowania produkcji energii elektrycznej z OZE w Polsce w kontekście współczesnych kryzysów
Problems and challenges in forecasting electricity production from RES in Poland in the context of contemporary crises

Summary/Abstract: The country’s energy security is one of the components of national security. Currently it hasbecome a source of special interest. The use of renewable energy sources (RES) is one of the measurescontributing to the increase in energy security. The aim of the article is to attempt to answer thequestion whether, on the basis of publicly available data from the CSO, we can effectively predict thedevelopment of energy production from renewable carriers.The goal was achieved in two stages. In the first one, forecasts of selected features characterizingthe production of electricity from RES for the period 2021–2023 were made, based on data from2000–2018, and, in the second, the original data was supplemented with the period 2019–2020.Holt’s exponential smoothing method and the medium-term rate of change method were used asresearch tools. The obtained results were compared.In the course of the study, both hypotheses were positively verified: Polish voivodeships arecharacterized by dynamic changes in the diversification of energy production from RES, whichtranslates into a significant variability of positions occupied in the rankings for selected featurescharacterizing them. Dynamic changes in the production of electricity from RES mean that thepreparation of forecasts of this phenomenon should be considered cognitive. The obtained results madeit possible to assess the quality and effectiveness of forecasts prepared on the basis of dynamicallychanging statistical information. The calculations were made in the Statistica program. The source ofthe data was the Local Data Bank.

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