Haalt België 2030? Of: Koninkrijk België vs. Republiek Vlaanderen
Will Belgium Survive Until 2030? Or: the Kingdom of Belgium vs. the Republic of Flanders

Summary/Abstract: The title of this article comes from the well-known book by the Soviet dissident Andrei Amalrik, Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? (Amsterdam: Alexander Herzen Foundation, 1969). The author of this article, who since 1976 has been one of the ‘best friends of Jos Wilmots’ Summer course in Hasselt’ and a member of the ‘Wilmotsian Circle’ in Central Europe, is looking to the future of Belgium by asking the same, now ‘Belgian’, question. At the end of the 1970s, he wrote a letter posing that question to Manu Ruys, editor-in-chief of the Belgian newspaper De Standaard, who replied, “Who knows for sure?” In the decades since, Belgium has undergone numerous reforms and transformations, from ‘unitary’ to ‘federal’. COVID-19 delayed the implementation of the 2011 Butterfly Agreement. The current Belgian Prime Minister will (perhaps) now bring the work to an end… But then what? A Belgian Confederation? Or a Republic of Flanders? This article attempts to answer these questions.

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