A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience based on Social Identity Influences (MODERSI)
A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience based on Social Identity Influences (MODERSI)

Summary/Abstract: The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience.

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