Devizni režimi i tendencije kurseva valuta istočnoevropskih zemalja tokom dve decenije nakon pada Berlinskog zida (1990–2010)
Foreign Currency Regimes and Exchange Rates Trends in Eastern European Countries Two Decades After the Fall of the Berlin Wall (1990-20

Summary/Abstract: Among the most important initial steps in transition to market economy the focus had been on stabilizing the monetary conditions and, therefore, foreign exchange rates. The weakening of the domicile currencies continued after the initial shock of transition, although with moderate intensity. In the mid-1990s, the trend of depreciation was completed. Since the second half of the 1990s until late 2008, most of the observed currencies recorded nominal (and real) appreciation. The global economic crisis leads to weakening of almost all East European currencies, but relatively quickly, in the early 2009, their stabilization and strengthening slightly began. Most Eastern European countries introduced more flexible exchange rate regimes and finally generally accepted (managed) floating exchange regimes, while Central European countries have implicitly and explicitly adopted the inflation targeting framework. Looking ahead, the currencies of the countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue their appreciation during the 2010-2014 period; however, a large number of currencies should be actually depreciated in order to service their net external debt in a sustainable way.

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