Economic Activity and Employment in the Non-Financial Sector of Bulgaria under Conditions of Covid-19 Crisis. Sectoral Vulnerability Assessment
Economic Activity and Employment in the Non-Financial Sector of Bulgaria under Conditions of Covid-19 Crisis. Sectoral Vulnerability Assessment

Summary/Abstract: This article examines the economic consequences in the non-financial sector of Bulgaria as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The development of the pandemic in Bulgaria is analyzed from a medical point of view and it is concluded that the country will need periodic lockdowns (restrictions by the government and health authorities) of some economic sectors for at least a few more years. The analysis of the data from Bulgaria and around the world shows that the lockdowns have general economic consequences, but mainly affect certain sectors. The main goal of the article is to identify the most vulnerable to social distancing industries in the Bulgarian economy. To this end, the article develops a methodology based on a set of criteria for assessing sectoral vulnerability to lockdowns. The methodology includes an assessment of sectoral vulnerability to automation, percentage of selfemployed in the sectors, Lockdown index, Home-office index, Teamwork, and Customer-facing. We have found that the most vulnerable sectors in Bulgaria is the Hotel and Restaurant Business sector, and Air transport.

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