Srovnání spolehlivosti predikčních modelů při předvídání úpadků českých podniků
Comparison of Prediction Models Accuracy in Predicting Bankruptcies of Czech Companies

Summary/Abstract: The ability to derive future values of the key variables successfully has always belonged to the objects of human interest and has not even avoided the business sector. For several decades many economists have been trying to find a way how to assess the health of a business as accurately as possible, or predict the bankruptcy. Hundreds of predictive models whose construction is based on various methods have been published. This article aims to assess the discriminatory power of the most famous corporate predictive models, the Altman Z-Score, the Taffler Z-Score and the IN05 model of the Neumaiers, for Czech companies. The first part deals with the comparison of the overall discriminatory power of the models; the second part is aimed at the identification of variables with the most influence on misclassification of enterprises in bankruptcy. The last part identifies the variables with the highest discriminatory power in the models. The empirical research is based on the accounting data of Czech companies from the manufacturing industry. Both thriving and bankrupt companies are included in the research.

• Details
• Contents